Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2795.50 | 2797.00 |
| …would target | 2802.50 | 2804.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2788.25 | 2790.00 |
| …would target | 2782.25 | 2784.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Weak highs, but highs.
Open’s weakness sets bearish context for rally.
Upon probing yesterday’s 2787.75 high post-open, the rally required exiting the open above it, preferably also trending higher. 
But the open’s touch of 2791.00 reversed down throughout the opening 15 minutes. And it extended down to 2782.75.
The likelihood for support at 2784.00-2785.00 was identified as likely to push back. It did more than that, recovering the opening drop’s 2791.00 origin.
The opening drop’s recovery never corrected along the way, and no accumulative pattern had formed. This only adds to the position of weakness already formed by having trended back down throughout the open under relevant support.
None of which has prevented extending up to 2794.50. All of which dooms the post-open bounce to failure. Already, a detached bar at the high has triggered a reaction down attacking 2788.00. Another fresh low would likely extend to fresh post-open lows, if not also repeat yesterday afternoon’s decline. Fresh highs would target 2795.75 if not also 2797.00. And still be vulnerable to failure.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Back to square-one.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s satisfied buying pressure and subsequent inertia had made a pullback likely. It also made the market vulnerable to overreacting to news. And news came after the close to trigger a 30-point plunge overnight to test 2766.00. Greeting Wednesday’s open 12 points higher eventually extended to attack 2788.00. But the balance of the morning retraced back down to the open, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. That included breaking lower during the very latest stage of the afternoon’s no-bias environment, which was almost too late to be considered no-bias trending. Its recovery cleared the way for resuming the decline, or else extending the recovery. Perhaps it was the CME’s outage that prevented both.
Overnight action’s new info…
The CME outage was resolved before the close, but the range persisted well into Globex. Surging before midnight up to 2784.50 ranged sideways even longer, into and out of Europe’s opens. A blip-down to 2778.50 snapped back up to touch yesterday’s 2787.75 high. And now it’s being probed up to 2791.00.
If, then…
The overnight resolution was likely to reveal the market’s intent, either gapping up above Wednesday afternoon’s 2782.50 high, or else breaking under the afternoon’s 2772.00 low. Gapping up is now indicated, and the scheduled pre-open reports probably don’t have the influence to change that trajectory. The risk of probing yesterday’s high post-open requires that it be maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Otherwise, rather than recovering yesterday’s high, failing to hold its post-open test could repeat yesterday’s reaction down — whether as a temporary dip into yesterday afternoon’s range, or to resume the decline. Having trended higher relentlessly overnight, attracting reinforcements through the open can extend the overnight trend, and not attracting reinforcements can kill it.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2792.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2788.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2785.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2780.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2778.50 | 2780.50 |
| …would target | 2786.00 | 2788.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2769.50 | 2771.50 |
| …would target | 2761.00 | 2763.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s satisfied buying pressure and subsequent inertia had made a pullback likely. It also made the market vulnerable to overreacting to news. And news came after the close to trigger a 30-point plunge overnight to test 2766.00. Greeting Wednesday’s open 12 points higher eventually extended to attack 2788.00. But the balance of the morning retraced back down to the open, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. That included breaking lower during the very latest stage of the afternoon’s no-bias environment, which could have been forgiven for being no-bias trending. It was recovered anyway.
Having recovered the no-bias trending, the decline was free to resume after the bias environment lapsed. The dip’s recovery was also free to extend higher. An outage at the CME prevented the market from reacting normally. The overnight resolution should reveal the market’s intent, either gapping up above the afternoon’s 2782.50 high, or else breaking under the afternoon’s 2772.00 low.
Not gapping up Thursday maintains the likelihood for retesting Tuesday night’s low. A post-open dip Wednesday to 2768.50 could have neutralized the overnight low’s attraction, and launched a durable intraday rally. Influence at 2768.50 is still likely if tested, but likely to be only temporary on the way down to 2761.00-2762.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.