Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t the week’s busiest, but it’s pretty busy anyway. Bank of Canada issues its policy statement and is expected to hike its rate. The ECB’s Mario Draghi is delivering an opening speech somewhere about something. Meanwhile, only the pre-open PPI report is reliable for influencing price action. Any reaction would likely be duplicated by post-open reports, if there’s any reaction to them.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
John Williams Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2795.50 | 2797.50 |
| …would target | 2802.00 | 2804.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2790.50 | 2790.75 |
| …would target | 2783.50 | 2783.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding back sellers.
Triggering bias-up.
Another overnight test of 2788.00 would not have been bullish. It was attacked to within 1 tick, which is borderline, but it held. Vulnerability to a post-open test of 2788.00 couldn’t be dismissed, and could still be dealt with bullishly if done early enough. It was only attacked to within 1 point at 2789.00.
The overnight dip to 2788.00 had recovered to 2794.50. That’s being pierced now by 1 point up to 2795.50. The 2789.75 bias-up signal is triggered and confirmed. Its 2797.50 bias-up target is in-play.
Invalidating the bias-up target requires exiting the bias environment back under its 2781.75 bias-down signal. Meanwhile, just dipping back under 2790.50 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway, anyway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Calling all cars.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up 10 points Monday to 2773.50 surged to 2779.00 and back down again. But not so far as to reverse momentum back down, all but putting into play 2788.00. The open held its test as support to resume rallying into the noon hour up to 2785.50. Its correction held the morning’s 2779.00 high and resumed rallying again — into a last-minute surge that came within 3 ticks of 2788.00. Post-close action immediately fulfilled it, neither extending above it nor reacting down from it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The post-close extension quickly formed a Close-quarters Double Top. But for absorbing it, Monday’s rally resumed immediately, and steeply, testing 2796.00. (There’s what appears to be a bad print or very errant ticks up to 2797.75.) Pulling back into and out of Europe’s opens tested and retested 2788.00. Its support has pushed price back up to 2794.50, where the difference will be made between extending or dipping again to 2788.00.
If, then…
The 2788.00 target was essentially met Monday, but wasn’t rejected before the close, so gapping up Tuesday wasn’t going to be surprising. Already extending 8-10 points higher overnight created that much room to absorb the subsequent selling pressure before it could damage the chart, helping yesterday’s late high hold its test as support. And having done so, there’s no bullish reason to retest 2788.00 except for a post-open dip to quickly reverse up. Exiting the open in negative territory would more likely trend down through the morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2790.75 would be likely to trigger the 2789.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2785.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s opening surge to 2779.00 trended back down ultimately through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. But it held above the 2772.50 bias-up target — easily at 9:45, and barely at 9:30 — to prevent sellers from gaining traction. The 2777.25 renewed bias-up target had been met, but probing it again would have potential up to 2788.00.
2788.00 was met to within 3 ticks by a last-minute surge.
Having fulfilled buying pressure, backing-and-filling is likely. Although, less likely coming at day’s end than intraday. The target is essentially met, but wasn’t rejected before the close. Gapping up Tuesday wouldn’t be surprising. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2781.00 before suggesting the trend is already reversing down — and gapping open under 2781.00 could form a “session-long decline.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.