Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2787.50 | 2789.75 |
| …would target | 2795.25 | 2797.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2779.25 | 2781.75 |
| …would target | 2771.00 | 2773.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s rally greeted Monday’s open testing the 1.1850 target. Price immediately reversed to probe negative territory down to 1.1793. The gap up above all prior highs is likely to be retested before a durable reversal down can gain traction.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap up to 1266.00 reversed down through the noon hour to test last week’s lower prior highs under 1259.00. The gap back to Friday’s 1256.50 close could be filled, too, but more important to maintaining the rally effort is to close above Monday’s high on Tuesday.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A pullback to 15.85 would have been optimal before completing a bottom, so rallying prematurely Sunday night can’t afford to much hesitation extending higher. And Monday morning already neutralized the nearest upside objective, filling the week-old gap up to 16.25. Closing higher Tuesday would form a bottom, and overcome the risk of a deeper pullback.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” reacted down Sunday night and gapped down Monday to test the 145-02 sell signal. That defined the lower-end, and keeps alive potential for a recovery above 145-25 to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Trading up through 74.25 Sunday night was retraced to only fluctuate narrowly Monday. Coming so close to filling the gap back up to 74.82 doesn’t qualify as filling it, which remains likely before a durable reversal down would be credible.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce neutralized the attraction to “higher prior lows,” which was retested Sunday night, But Monday’s intraday slide tested 2.82, whose break would confirm a deeper downleg is underway.
Mid-day Update… Still trending.
Reaction from higher highs still a higher low.
Retracing the open’s surge from its 2779.00 high back down to 2772.75 held the 2772.50 bias-up target, renewing the bias-up signal. The 2777.25 renewed bias-up target was retested, on the way to fresh highs at 2785.50.
The noon hour’s retracement attacked 2779.00. Which is still a higher low — albeit slightly higher — in the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows. And it’s only slightly above the open’s surge.
A fresh low would be credible for reversing momentum down, possibly reversing today’s trend back down to Friday’s “lower prior highs” at 2761.00-2762.00. Otherwise, back above 2784.00 would next target 2788.00, and possibly a reaction down, but probably only temporary and shallow.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Only Tuesday’s jobs opening report is reliable for influencing price action. But any noticeable reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to JOLTS.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2781.75 | 2784.00 |
| …would target | 2787.50 | 2789.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2773.25 | 2775.75 |
| …would target | 2767.00 | 2769.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.