Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding, up.
Fresh post-open highs still hovering above overnight highs.
The sideways range between 2770.00-2775.00 that began at midnight persisted right up to the open. Picking the resolution from a standing stop is rarely reliable. Especially not when fluctuating narrowly around a relevant level, like this morning’s 2772.50 bias-up target.
The open did immediately surge and extended to test 2777.25 up to 2779.00. Still testing 2777.25 when the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed — and not exceeding or reacting to it — offered no new clues. But a lone detached bar did suggest near-term buying pressure was peaking, and a reversal attacked 2772.50 to within 1 tick.
2772.50 held, renewing the bias-up signal. Its 2777.25 renewed bias-up target was already tested, and now it’s being retested. Extending above 2778.00 would start to signal the rally is extending, confirmed above 2780.00. Back under 2774.25 would signal a deeper retracement underway, likely targeting Friday afternoon’s “lower prior highs” down to 2761.00-2762.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… An optimistic start.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s choppiness had fluctuated between probing the 2739.75 intraday high up to 2747.25 to retracing it down to 2731.25. The setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish, when fully formed but not triggered. Friday’s Employment Situation report triggered a surge to 2744.50, that still needed another dip before the open could rally to fresh highs. The pre-open restraint paid off by letting post-open buying pressure run up to 2764.25 into the noon hour. Potential to the low 2760‘s was fulfilled, and the balance of the session fluctuated around 2760.00-2761.00. A late dip down to 2757.00 began too late to be strong-handed, and snapped back up to attack 2764.00 into the close. Two-week old gaps and higher prior lows were tested from below, and held through the close to prevent putting any higher targets into play.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was uneventful, no gapping involved. But price immediately began firming back up to and through Friday afternoon’s highs. Extending to 2774.50 by midnight has since ranged sideways between 2770.00-2775.00. The upper-end is being pierced now.
If, then…
Despite not retracing the initial upleg, the overnight plateau disqualifies overnight action from being relentless trending. Nevertheless, the burden of proof is on buyers to maintain a gap coming out of the weekend. Already probing above this morning’s bias-up 2772.50 target, the next higher resistance is likely to be tested at 2777.25. Testing 2780.00, too, during a relevant window would make its recovery — or rejection — predictive. In other words, testing 2777.25 and/or 2780.00 must be maintained to avoid reversing down sharply through the morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2764.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2766.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2768.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2772.00 after testing 2777.25 could reverse momentum down.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2764.75 | 2766.00 |
| …would target | 2771.25 | 2772.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2756.00 | 2757.50 |
| …would target | 2749.00 | 2750.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s wide swing had begun the night by gapping down back under Thursday’s last-minute surge to 2740.00. 
That didn’t prevent probing higher anyway to 2747.50, which didn’t prevent retesting the earlier overnight low down to 2731.25. Which is a potentially bearish setup, rejecting an overnight trend high back under the earlier overnight low.
The setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But it never fully formed, with the open testing the earlier low. So, it was never rejected. Which didn’t prevent Friday from behaving as bullishly as the setup would have been bearish.
Potential to the low 2760‘s was fulfilled at 2760.00-2761.00 by noon. The balance of the session fluctuated around it. But probing higher and higher (and higher) above 2761.00 to eventually test 2766.00 kept reacting back down under 2761.00. The last dip blipped-down to test 2757.00 during the position-squaring window, and snapped back up to attack 2764.00 into the close. Two-week old gaps and higher prior lows were tested from below, and held through the close to prevent putting any higher targets into play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: NO WEEKEND REVIEW SATURDAY. CHARTROOM RE-OPENS 6 ET SUN.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday back to Thursday’s 1.7735 open surged to fresh recovery highs at 1.1830. The 1.1850 objective is also in view so long as Monday doesn’t retrace all of Friday’s gain.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s gap down still held well above Thursda’s lows, but didn’t recover. It’s not the optimal pullback before launching the next upleg, but almost any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher anyway.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely attacking Thursday’s high Friday morning reacted back down to attack Wednesday’s lows, which is still shallower than optimal before launching a credible rally leg. While a fresh high early Monday could extend, it probably wouldn’t be durable.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report was retraced back within Thursday’s range, almost entirely to fill the gap back down to 145-16. Friday’s gap up was within Thursday’s range, too, so there is not inhibition to prevent reacting down through the week-long range’s lower end to 144-08.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Retesting the 72.80 pullback limit Friday morning was recovered to hold its test, still being likely to fill Tuesday’s 74.80 opening gap and possibly retest the 75.30 target.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s session didn’t rally, and only slightly probed under Thursday’s low. Twice. The recent break and the position of weakness greeting the EIA report weren’t rejected, making the pattern likely to resolve down if not already recovering Sunday night.