Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… There. And, back?
Upside fulfilled. Can it be maintained? Can it extend?.
This morning’s 2749.00 bias-up target was met. And it was gradually exceeded. Then it was left behind in the dust when the bias environment began lapsing at 2758.00. The noon hour was entered at 2763.50. Potential to the low-2760s is fulfilled.
Attempts to extend higher have touched 2765.00. But this afternoon’s 2764.50 bias-up signal did not trigger. Back under 2760.00 could retrace to 2747.00 simply as noise.
Rallying out of the bias environment exit would be credible for resuming the rally, especially with this being a Friday. No matter how overly-extended today’s rally might seem, be careful underestimating the ability to drift higher through the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The new week begins with no high-profile econ reports. Not listed is a scheduled speech by a Fed Speaker on Sunday night.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2763.25 | 2764.50 |
| …would target | 2770.75 | 2772.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2754.50 | 2756.00 |
| …would target | 2749.00 | 2750.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Earned it.
Pre-payrolls pessimism’s pop-up proceeds patiently, persistently.
The bullish scenario I described during the Market Tour was that testing the earlier 2732.75 overnight low reflected pessimism. A
nd pessimism into a known-event like the Employment Situation report is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
The test had touched 2731.25 before greeting the news at 2733.00, which spiked up to 2744.50. Its pre-open retracement blipped-down briefly post-open to 2734.50, then started recovering. The 2740.75 bias-up signal was triggered, the reaction’s 2744.50 high was recovered, and now the 2747.50 high has been touched.
The 2749.00 bias-up target is in-play. Extending any higher would target the low 2750‘s and potentially also probe above 2760.00. One impediment to extending higher is the open’s delay recovering decisively, which would have been preferable in this scenario. So, sellers aren’t marginalized, but the burden of proof is still on them.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Head-fake, or double secret head-fake?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s low was 19 points under the 2735.75 overnight high, and still held positive territory. The drop was recovered entirely before leaving the noon hour. It was also still an inside day, contained within Tuesday’s range, until a later probe higher to 2739.50. That included another drop which was also fully recovered, reacting down to the FOMC Minutes. It created the afternoon’s 2725.00 low. Regardless of the late surge, Tuesday’s downside momentum has yet to be reversed.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex gapped down under Thursday afternoon’s 2737.50 high to immediately reject the late surge. Immediately extending lower to test 2733.00 didn’t prevent recovering to retest the late surge up to 2740.00. And it didn’t prevent a spike up after midnight to 2745.00 that extended up to 2747.50 before Europe’s opens. 
More like until Europe’s opens. Collapsing back down to 2735.00 was retraced 6 points, but only temporarily. Now 2733.00 is being retested.
If, then…
Regardless of current indications, the soon-to-be released Employment Situation report makes today’s actual opening print wild card. But we do know there are two bearish setups forming, waiting to be triggered. First, having trended up into Thursday’s close, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 2725.00 low would form a “session-long decline.” That much we knew at yesterday’s close, but now a second setup may be forming since first dipping at last night’s Globex open (see image). Having probed above Thursday’s intraday high, exiting Friday’s open under the earlier 2732.75 overnight low would reverse momentum down through the morning. Otherwise, not exploiting the reversal potential would be likely at least to test the overnight high. And this being a Friday, when the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, extending higher could reach the mid-2750s and maybe low 2760s.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.