Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2739.75 | 2740.75 |
| …would target | 2748.00 | 2749.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2731.75 | 2733.00 |
| …would target | 2726.00 | 2727.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
There’s a lot of symmetry in the swings that comprise Thursday’s session.
Thursday’s gap up to 2729.50 was 6 points off of the pre-open high, and on its way down another 12-1/2 points to the session low at 2717.00. Still, rallying into and through the noon hour probed the pre-open high by 2 points up to 2737.50. The retest of overnight highs held, and held the range for noise.
Reacting down after the FOMC Minutes release fell another 12-1/2 points to 2725.00 and recovered entirely again. Then a last-minute push coming out of the position-squaring window got another 2 points higher to 2739.50.
All of which is still an inside day compared to Tuesday. So, Tuesday’s downside momentum has yet to be reversed. And having trended up into the close, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon’s 2725.00 low would form a “session-long decline.” Otherwise, there’s still a little room for noise above before suggesting the 2750s and maybe low 2760s are in-play.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday filled the gap to last Tuesday’s 1.1781 open and immediately began trending down to last Friday’s 1.1745 “lower prior highs.” Extending any higher would next target the 1.1850 area.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Shallow overnight weakness was recovered to gap up Thursday and then probe fresh highs attacking 1262.50. The pullback was too shallow to be optimal, but almost any higher close would be credible for extending the bounce to 1269.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping under 16.00 overnight was recovered in time to gap up Thursday and then probed Tuesday’s high up to 16.20. The gap back down to Monday’s 15.85 close remains outstanding, but almost any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending sharply higher.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Thursday and probing fresh highs above the recent range’s upper-end could have greeted Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. But the range’s upper-end was still being tested. A negative reaction or resolution can’t be dismissed. But closing above the range would be considered a breakout.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping again to the 72.90 pullback limit Thursday still hasn’t reversed the trend down, and remains likely to retest the 74.82 gap up or even to more fully test the 75.30 target.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce up to “higher prior lows” at 2.90 was retraced through Thursday morning down to 2.82. Friday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Second time’s a charm?
Retesting overnight highs.
This morning’s drop ultimately tested the 2718.00 bias-up signal. Being a bias-up environment, its test was required to define the window’s lower-end. Which it did, piercing it twice with errant ticks before bouncing.
And bouncing.
The noon hour’s entry had recovered this morning’s 2729.00 sell signal. The noon hour probed the 2732.75 opening high. And the noon hour’s exit probed the 2735.75 pre-open high. All of which was maintained for long enough to trigger this afternoon’s 2733.00 bias-up signal.
A reaction down to 2732.25 ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes is trying to hold. Any lower would be credible for triggering at least a pullback. But a fresh high is otherwise likely at some point for rewarding the late-morning buyers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report is both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. No other report on Friday is either. Any price impact could be magnified for being a relatively low-volume session.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET