Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2732.00 | 2733.00 |
| …would target | 2738.50 | 2738.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2724.00 | 2725.25 |
| …would target | 2718.50 | 2719.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Catching their drift.
Pre-open pullback extends post-open.
The overnight rally extended to test and retest 2735.50, while RSIs diverged negatively. Its reaction greeted the open at 2729.75. 
Buyers needed to retake control immediately if they were going to retake control at all this morning. They didn’t, and the pre-open reaction down extended through the first hour to test 2723.00.
Now 2721.50 is being touched.
This is still a bias-up environment, with room down to its 2718.00 bias-up signal that should define the window’s lower-end if tested. When the window comes withing view of lapsing 10-15 minutes before 11:30, the 2718.00 bias-up signal would then be free to break lower.
Back above 2729.00 would start to signal the morning’s drop was contained, and momentum was reversing up. Otherwise, except for obligatory support at the gap back down to 2712.00-2714.00, there is minimal support on the way down to the range’s lower-end.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Bouncing into proximity.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2736.50 open was backing-off of the 2741.50 overnight high, but still gapped up 9 points from Monday’s close. It was still much more a test of the recent range’s upper-end, opposite of Monday’s open gapping down to the same range’s lower-end. And it was no more likely to extend beyond the range without extending immediately. Which, like Monday, it did not. Just drifting back down through the morning to attack Monday’s 2727.25 close could have sufficed for the early close session, but US-China trade war headlines triggered a slide to 2712.00 by the close. Ending back under 2718.00 helped to maintain the decline’s traction, which still needs confirmation by extending down Thursday without delay, regardless of a possible bounce during the Globex holiday trading.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday night’s Globex open blipped-down to 2711.00 and then proceeded to bounce, to within 2 ticks of Thursday morning’s 2724.50 bias-up target. Last night’s session initially dipped to retrace almost all of the bounce down to 2712.50. But no deeper. And rallying through Europe’s opens has extended to 2733.00, which is probing slightly above where Tuesday’s US-China trade war headlines triggered its slide.
If, then…
Immediately extending Tuesday’s slide is not a likely scenario after having bounced so much overnight. But another confirmation setup remains valid since overnight action didn’t get the opportunity to reject a probe lower, and that is to immediately trend down through the open and eventually end under Tuesday’s close. Just closing back under 2718.00 would at least keep alive downside momentum into the weekend. None of that is currently indicated, and trending up through an open that is back at or above the last downleg’s origin would be likely to extend higher through the morning. The trick to that isn’t extending higher, but not to reject the origin’s recovery, which is as much resistance as the recent range’s upper-end.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2726.50 would be likely to exceed the 2724.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2721.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2718.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is already the week’s busiest. But it’s especially busy thanks to the holiday. Yet, ADP is the morning’s only reliably influential report. More important is that it will give us some last-minute perspective of how the market intends to react to Friday’s payrolls report. In the interim is Thursday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, which are higher-profile and influential ahead of high-profile influential reports like payrolls.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2716.50 | 2718.00 |
| …would target | 2723.00 | 2724.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2708.50 | 2709.75 |
| …would target | 2701.75 | 2703.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.