Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Hang in there, baby.
Failed pre-open dip not reversing.
The late overnight dip was at least likely to retest the overnight range before being able to extend down, if it even extended down. The overnight range has been retested, and the break has not extended down. In fact, the overnight range’s retest up to 2714.00 is being attacked now up to 2713.25. And there’s room up to 2715.00 during this no-bias environment.
Back under 2707.00 would start to signal another break lower trying to form. That signal would be triggered under 2711.00 if 2715.00 were tested first. Regardless, the no-bias environment’s lower-end should be defined by its 2704.25 bias-down signal if tested prematurely.
I think the market wants a fresh high up to 2715.00 before reversing down. Regardless, still not actually rallying — not yet exploiting the pre-open false break — is similar to last night’s narrow ranging in positive territory. It’s just more “ineffectual optimism” that refuels sellers, and not accumulation. Only recovering 2715.00-2718.00 would start to suggest otherwise.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 29, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two high-profile and reliably influential reports are staggered, so any obvious reaction to the first is likely to be duplicated by the second. More so, the first of the two high-profile reports releases numbers privately to its institutional subscribers prior to its public release, and any obvious reaction to the private release tends to repeat or extend when released publicly.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2713.00 | 2715.00 |
| …would target | 2720.50 | 2722.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2702.25 | 2704.50 |
| …would target | 2695.75 | 2698.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting ahead of, and stepping all over, itself.
Late pre-open break reveals excessive pessimism.
Breaking an overnight range within 60-90 minutes of the open tends not to extend. At least, not until retracing the break. So, this morning’s last plunge from 2716.00 down to 2693.25 was likely to retrace back into the overnight range. Already testing the morning’s 2694.25 bias-down target’s support helped.
Bounce potential up to the 2711.00 bias-up signal was not attractive. Just touching 2707.25 was enough to launch a drop down to 2694.25 — it was the bias-down target’s first intraday test. And it held. But the 2707.25 bounce was only attacked before dipping again. And the 2700.00 bias-down signal’s test wasn’t resolved, triggering noN-bias.
Meanwhile, the ongoing volatility had started appearing at a granular level within the narrow range. Inflection points were probed no further than their first 3-4 minutes before reversing sharply. It continues to this minute, still overlapping 2700.00 by points in either direction.
Regardless of this being a noN-bias environment, holding two post-open tests of the 2694.25 bias-down target and exiting the bias environment above its bias-down signal could be bullish. Could be, because already testing the 2711.00 bias-up signal without recovering it would be bearish. Exiting the bias environment back under 2700.00 could simply resume the decline.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… An eerie calm.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Volatility made its most obvious display on Wednesday, even before the open. An overnight drop had probed probe under Tuesday’s 2717.50 low to 2705.50, and was recovered to greet Wednesday’s open just short of Tuesday’s 2735.25 highs. That recovery was extended to the morning’s 2748.00 high before reversing back down through the overnight low to 2701.00. The intraday downleg had retraced 61.8% of the recovery and still exhibited optimism in the form of a Running Correction / Falling Wedge. “Ineffectual optimism,” because the pattern resolved down. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding as the session ended at 2702.00/2705.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Trending up gradually to 2714.00 was retraced down to 2706.00 into Europe’s opens. The reaction to Wednesday’s intraday decline was muted, enabling a quick recovery up to 2717.00.The defensive posturing had paid off, initially, but only temporarily as the recovery was reversed entirely back down to 2704.50. Another recovery, even steeper than coming after Europe, tested 2716.00, and is now reacting back down again to 2707.00… all in positive territory.
If, then…
Wednesday’s session suggests that Tuesday night’s decline has resumed, which was already an effort to resume Monday morning’s decline. Not extending down already overnight isn’t bullish, — only hovering in positive territory is potentially just another instance of “ineffectual optimism.” Yesterday afternoon’s instance resolved down, and hasn’t been recovered. Notwithstanding support along the way, the next lower objective is to retest the 4-week old 2679.00 low, and that should offer only obligatory support. Meanwhile, since yesterday’s sellers gained traction for their efforts, gapping up above 2722.50 would be credible for reversing the trend back up.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2709.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2711.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2713.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.