Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2708.00 | 2711.00 |
| …would target | 2715.25 | 2718.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2697.00 | 2700.00 |
| …would target | 2691.25 | 2694.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Volatility remains alive and well. The market, maybe not so much. Don’t blame optimists. They’re doing their best. Patient sellers are letting them expend all of their energy, and then exploiting them.
One example: Wednesday’s overnight probe under Tuesday’s 2717.50 low was recovered to form an Isolation setup. Perhaps that recovery was exacerbated by a friendly trade war headline, but its reaction had almost fulfilled its 2735.25 objective at the open. So, patient sellers let impatient buyers extend to the next higher resistance, quickly, before strong-handed reinforcements could be attracted. This resulted in a stretched rubber band that easily retraced the friendly headline back down to 2715.50.
Another example: The headline’s retracement would rarely neutralize the initial reaction’s failure. That didn’t inhibit bottom fishers from slowing the decline, while maintaining the downtrend, and forming a Falling Wedge. An attempt to break higher up to 2720.00 missed that buying pressure just when it was needed most, and the downtrend resumed more aggressively to touch 2701.00.
The bigger picture suggests that Tuesday night’s decline has resumed, and that was already an effort to resume Monday morning’s decline. Retesting the 4-week old 2679.00 low should find only obligatory support, already having utilized “lower prior highs” to launch what may soon be a failed upleg. Meanwhile, sellers gained traction for their efforts, so only gapping up above 2722.50 would be credible for reversing the trend back up.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing the 1.1725 sell signal at Tuesday’s close, but as resistance, resolved down overnight to gap down Wednesday under the 1.1700 confirmation. Extending down sharply intraday tested 1.1635 which had been the original decline’s target, likely now to probe fresh lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight was extended Wednesday morning, as the session tested 1253.50. Thu-Mon had formed a multi-session range, so Wednesday’s fresh low close has confirmed Tuesday’s breakout and now requires at least an eventual third lower close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s 16.18 gap down under all prior lows had required a retest from above, which was fulfilled at Wednesday’s open. Its reaction up filled the gap back to Tuesday’s close before resolving down to fresh lows. While this does not form a breakout, at least fresh intraday lows are likely, if not also extnding the trend.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap up immediately tested downtrending resistance coinciding at 144-26. Extending higher intraday to attack 145-08 did not reverse down intraday, but closing back under 144-26 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fulfilling the 70.25 target Tuesday wasn’t rejected or reversed, and the rally extended higher overnight to gap up Wednesday at 71.18. Trending up intraday probed a nickel above 73.00 and 35 cents above 5-week old highs. Holding 71.25 as support keeps alive the next higher target at 75.30.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 2.96 and extending up to 3.00 greets Thursday’s EIA more from a position of strength than of weakness. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to 2.92 would be likely to recover, but there’s no assurance of an initially favorable reaction being maintained.
Mid-day Update… Take-backs.
Pre-open recovery gets retraced entirely.
The overnight probe under yesterday’s lows was isolated thanks to a headline that diminished the US-China trade war. 
That produced an Isolation setup whose reward was at least to retest yesterday’s 2735.25 high. The recovery ultimately extended up to 2748.00, testing room for noise above Monday’s opening 2744.50 gap.
The market has reversed down since then almost relentlessly. This morning’s 2729.00 bias-up signal was attacked as support, 19 points off of the high. Which was overshadowed by the 26-point drop to attack 2715.00.
That’s 33 points under this morning’s high, and 10 points above the overnight low. Any fresh low will likely have resumed the overnight decline, which had itself tried resuming Monday morning’s decline. Support at 2711.00 would be the last opportunity to recover from fresh lows.
Meanwhile, the 2715.25 low occurred at the 1:20 bias timing window. So, exiting the bias environment back above its 2724.25 bias-down target could end the decline. For today.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The most reliably influential item on Thursday’s econ calendar isn’t an econ report, but the mid-morning Fed speaker. This, despite the pre-open items being high-profile, and the day’s calendar being busy.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
10:45 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET