Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2739.00 | 2741.00 |
| …would target | 2745.00 | 2747.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2729.75 | 2732.00 |
| …would target | 2722.00 | 2724.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Isolation, indeed.
Pre-open surge ensures bullish resolution.
The overnight dip to 2705.50 had stopped short of touching Monday’s pivotal low to avoid putting into play any lower attraction. Already bouncing back into Tuesday’s range up to 2721.25 was creating potential for the probe under its lows being isolated to the overnight. And the Isolation setup’s reward would be to retest yesterday’s 2735.25 highs.
The isolation setup was almost rendered moot as price dipped back down to 2712.00. But a headline saved the setup by triggering an 18-point surge that retested the morning’s 2729.00 bias-up signal. Eking higher attacked yesterday’s 2735.25 highs, and then sliced through them after the open.
Natural resistance at Monday’s 2744.50 gap down is now being tested. Room for noise above it to 2746.75 could be tested, too. But back under 2739.00 would at least back-and-fill back down to 2729.00. A bearish scenario would break lower from there.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Jump ball.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s 2725.75 open only overlapped Monday afternoon’s 2725.00 high. Gapping up higher or extending could have invalidated the traction not gained by Monday afternoon’s buyers. So, Tuesday morning ranged very choppily between 2718.00-2728.00, holding the morning’s 2728.25 bias-up target. Extending the rally through the noon hour came within 1 tick of its 2735.50 bias-up target. It also held, like the morning’s target. The balance of the session drifted back down to 2723.25, absorbing a 5-1/2 point headline bounce. And the session went out overlapping its prior high from Monday afternoon, again gaining no traction for its efforts, and leaving no unfinished business outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex initially bounced up to 2732.50, 3 points short of Tuesday afternoon’s high. Consolidating back down to 2724.50 got in a 5-point bounce to test this morning’s 2729.00 bias-up signal before sliding into and out of Europe’s opens. A lot. Ultimately reaching 2705.50, a 16-point bounce has has retraced 61.8% of the overnight drop from testing 2729.00. That is probing slightly back above yesterday morning’s lows and almost attacking this morning’s 2722.50 bias-down signal as resistance.
If, then…
The overnight low attacks Monday’s lows. The overnight dip avoided touching Monday morning’s 2703.75 pivotal low, which avoids requiring a retest of Monday afternoon’s 2700.50 actual low. I would expect a second bite at that apple to succeed at creating the new attraction below. Otherwise, isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight — i.e. not only triggering no-bias above 2722.50, but avoiding 2717.50 post-open — would target a retest of yesterday’s high. Triggering bias-down would resume Monday’s break and the attraction to 4-week old lows, where the trend reverses down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2722.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2718.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2727.00 | 2729.00 |
| …would target | 2733.50 | 2735.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2720.25 | 2722.50 |
| …would target | 2712.75 | 2715.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Having failed to gain traction during Monday’s final hour rally, extending higher without delay Tuesday morning required gapping up. But opening at Monday afternoon’s 2725.00 high did not suffice. The rally didn’t reverse down, but Tuesday morning ranged very choppily between 2718.00-2728.00. The morning’s 2728.25 bias-up target held.
And then the morning ended. Trending up into the afternoon bias environment came within 1 tick of its 2735.50 bias-up target. Like the morning, it also held. No new buying pressure was created.
Drifting back down through the proxy window to 2727.25 suddenly reacted up 5-1/2 points on a favorable China trade war comment. Its retracement was reversed through the close to fulfill its 2723.75 objective. The session went out overlapping yesterday afternoon’s 2725.00 high, again gaining no traction, and leaving no unfinished business outstanding.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.