Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Overnight weakness tested the new 1.1725 pullback limit, and held it intraday to maintain potential for extending the bounce up to 1.1850. Otherwise, breaking the pullback limit and extending under 1.1700 would target fresh lows at 1.1575.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A double-digit overnight slide to 1256.50 gapped down to fresh lows again Tuesday. Like Thursday’s gap down, the balance of the morning trended back up to 1264.00. But Tuesday had already begun rolling back over. Regardless, the low will need to be retested.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down to fresh lows after testing 16.15 quickly rallied Tuesday to fill the gap back up to Monday’s close above 16.30. The balance of the session hovered narrowly under unchanged, with the open’s gap now requiring a retest.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s flat-to-lower ranging held within Monday’s range and just under Monday’s 144-16 high, still having potential to test 144-26 and to reverse down from there.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Friday’s breakout above 65.65 on Monday didn’t prevent extending higher Tuesday to fulfill the 70.25 target up to 70.65. Pullbacks must now hold 69.35 as support to avoid potentially triggering the 68.80 sell signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium over Jul]… Flat, narrow ranging between 2.90-2.92 didn’t extend Monday’s drop, which remains vulnerable to breaking lower anyway so long as 2.96 isn’t recovered first.
Mid-day Update… Faking it til it’s making it.
Squeaking higher to the next resistance.
This morning’s 2728.25 bias-up target held the overnight high, and the post-open highs. Probing it momentarily by 2 points reversed down 13 points to fresh post-open lows. So, 2728.25 is kind of relevant.
2728.25 is also this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And testing it throughout the noon hour broke higher. But its 2735.50 bias-up target was being tested at the 1:20 bias timing window. Similar to this morning, which was holding its 2728.25 bias-up target.
Neither setup required holding, let alone reversing down. This morning’s setup did reverse down, but only temporarily. Reversing down this afternoon — back under 2730.25 would start to signal a reversal — would likely produce fresh session lows, perhaps even under yesterday’s lows.
Otherwise, probing fresh highs before late afternoon could extend higher, despite buyers having failed to gain traction yesterday. But there’s no requirement to extend higher, and current fresh session highs remain vulnerable to reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy. Only one item is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action, the pre-open Durable Goods report. Any noticeable reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. Also, the noon hour’s normally slower environment might be easily agitated by the Fed speaker scheduled then.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:15 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2726.00 | 2728.25 |
| …would target | 2733.25 | 2735.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2719.00 | 2721.00 |
| …would target | 2711.00 | 2713.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Up to the last drop.
Optimism absorbs multiple dips, then is fully rewarded.
The open’s blip-up touched the 2727.75 level I had identified in pre-open comments as likely to be the upper-end of noise. 
Back under 2725.25 would signal momentum reversing down, which it did, all the way to 2718.25.
And that was just halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Which made its durability suspicious. Especially since the reaction down was still only overlapping yesterday’s 2720.00 cash session close’s support.
Another bounce up to 2727.75 wasn’t surprising, not so much as it not probing higher. That was the first instance of “ineffectual pessimism” which kept alive the potential for fresh highs. And ultimately, after easily triggering the 2722.50 bias-up signal, a fresh high targeting 2730.50 was fulfilled.
And rejected. Consolidating back down to 2720.00-2722.50 is now probing lower to probe the open’s low by 1 point down to 2717.25. Already meeting the bias-up target does make the pattern vulnerable to reversing down, especially since not gapping up high enough already doomed a morning rally to failure.