Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2771.00 | 2774.00 |
| …would target | 2776.75 | 2779.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2764.75 | 2767.75 |
| …would target | 2758.50 | 2761.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Reinforcements otherwise occupied.
Gap up fails.
Gapping up was only half the battle to trending up this morning. Maintaining the gap up, and extending higher through the open, comprised the other half. 
All preferably above the 2773.50 bias-up signal. The second half of the battle didn’t win.
Although the opening 15 minutes of volatility did repeatedly overlap 2773.50, the 2775.00-2776.25 overnight highs weren’t probed. Not even touched. Slipping into and out of the 10:15 bias timing window avoided triggering bias-up, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2663.00 bias-down signal.
Extending down to natural support at 2767.00 is producing a reaction up, attacking 2771.00. The opening range’s congestion formed a mass whose gravitational pull could attract price back up to it. Back above 2771.50 could retest 2774.00 as resistance. Any higher could even extend the recovery, albeit doomed to recovery.
Meanwhile, the offsetting test of the 2763.00 bias-down signal remains intact. More so, as the bias signal produced fresh post-open lows AFTER triggering at 10:15.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not for lack of trying.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s opening retest of 2767.00 had put into play an eventual test of 2756.00. Rallying Monday didn’t prevent trending down overnight (on US-China tariff war escalating) to probe 20 points under 2756.00. Rallying pre-open didn’t extend much higher for long post-open. But the session ultimately recovered to test 2767.00 by 2 points. Closing above 2756.00 indicated that sellers gained no traction for their efforts. Closing above 2767.00 would have indicated buyers gained traction for theirs. The close wasn’t decisively above 2767.00, but it was still impressive.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness well before midnight had already rivaled the intraday action. Rallying from the overnight low has rivaled Tuesday’s intraday action, too. First, a 4-point dip to this morning’s 2763.00 bias-down signal reacted up to fresh highs at 2769.00, then collapsed to within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2756.75 bias-down target. Its quick recovery up to 2767.00 was retraced once more down to 2763.00, but recovered again. That was the end of that, as the market surged up to 2775.00. But fluctuating around this morning’s 2773.50 bias-up signal into and out of Europe’s opens, and gradually firming another point, is now reacting down to 2770.50.
If, then…
The market has an interesting property when closing at support or resistance: immediately extending the trend requires gapping. So, we discussed at yesterday’s closing test of 2767.00 that rallying at all this morning would require gapping up. And preferably gapping up above 2773.50, which is also this morning’s bias-up signal. Now its overnight test positions the open for that gap up, which can easily extend to fill Monday and Friday’s 2778.00 and 2785.00 gaps. Or more, with the next gap outstanding at 2788.00 and “unfinished business above” 8-10 points higher, although two gap fills in a single session tend to be a session extreme. But the upside all depends upon at least triggering the 2773.50 bias-up signal, preferably maintaining a gap up and extending it. Holding its test and reversing down may not resume the decline, but overnight lows could be retested.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2770.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2773.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2777.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2770.25 | 2773.50 |
| …would target | 2777.75 | 2781.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2759.50 | 2763.00 |
| …would target | 2753.25 | 2756.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday didn’t rally throughout, but it rallied a lot. The 2750.50 open was well off the 2735.75 low, and a post-open surge extended that quickly to 2758.50. Reacting down to 2746.25 probed a fresh post-open low, but it was also the post-open low. Rallying gradually higher into the final hour touched 2769.00.
Timing undermined both sellers and buyers. Correcting the morning’s recovery from 2764.00 by 20 points held its test of 2756.00 as support, preventing sellers from gaining traction for having probed under it. Extending higher through the afternoon held a test of 2767.00, preventing buyers from gaining traction for their efforts. More so, waiting until minutes before the final hour’s entry to actually probe above 2767.00 wouldn’t have been reliable if maintained, which it was not.
Extending higher from this pattern all but requires gapping up, preferably above 2773.50. Dipping again would have potential to hold 2756.00. But its break at this stage would likely target a retest of Monday night’s low down to 2732.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.