Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2773.75 | 2776.75 |
| …would target | 2781.75 | 2784.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2766.50 | 2769.50 |
| …would target | 2758.50 | 2761.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday was not a Wednesday Wreversal. Not intraday. The morning didn’t trend convincingly in one direction, and then reverse surprisingly and more substantially in the opposite direction. That actually describes the overnight action, which all but tested the bias-down target before reversing to the bias-up signal.
Intraday action still ranged widely. And not arbitrarily, putting into play objectives in either direction. But the objectives were left outstanding — “unfinished business” below at 2763.00 protected by natural support at 2767.00, and above at 2779.75 that was attacked to within 2 points.
Forming the sponsorship and counter-trend sponsorship to trigger widely disparate objectives, and to prevent fulfilling either, reflects an unstable market. And that’s the S&P 500. It’s not surprising for the Dow and NDX to be diverging so strongly from each other, as well. S&Ps volatility should expand sharply Thursday, whether ranging more widely or trending sharply.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down retesting the 1.1625 target was not extended intraday. Tuesday’s narrow ranging neither extended Monday’s drop nor rejected it. Much more delay in resolving either way will make a more durable resolution down likely.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already retesting Tuesday’s 1274.00 low before Wednesday’s open, the balance of the session eked flat-to-lower. Resuming the decline from this stage of the pattern should begin abruptly if valid.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s narrowly ranging inside day was difficult to form inside of Tuesday’s already narrow range. Despite the seeming calm on its surface, still not rejecting the decline by Thursday’s close would likely extend down further at an accelerated pace.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual optimism” was retraced overnight for Wednesday’s open to retest Monday’s 143-20 close. The pattern’s 143-16 buy signal remained intact, but must be productive without any further delay to remain valid.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back up Wednesday to the 65.65 buy signal ranged widely around it intraday — swinging 65-cents in either direction, and ultimately recovering back above it. The signal needs confirmation from a second consecutive higher close Thursday. Because Wednesday’s session ranged more so than trended, not already rallying at Thursday’s open would suggest that Wednesday’s buy signal will be rejected.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.95 Wednesday retraced Tuesday’s gap down, but didn’t reject it. Being unconfirmed, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength. Closing higher Thursday would be bullish, unless the gap back up to Friday’s 3.02 close were filled without closing above it.
Mid-day Update… Sharks vs. Jets.
Detour keeps fighting back.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2773.50 bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s 2763.00 bias-down signal. 
The reaction down got to natural support at 2767.00 which held. It held, and it firmed into the bias environment exit.
Then the bounce extended, into and through the noon hour. The gap back up to Monday’s 2778.00 cash session close was filled. Natural resistance there has reacted down to 2774.00. Which is also support, being this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And bias-up triggered at 1:20.
But this afternoon’s bias-up hasn’t yet been productive since triggering. In contrast, this morning’s bias signal produced fresh lows after triggering. Without probing a fresh high, this afternoon’s bias-up signal can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 2767.75 bias-down signal.
Meanwhile, back above 2775.75 would resume the upside momentum, its objective being this afternoon’s 2779.75 bias-up target. This morning’s 2763.00 bias objective is now “unfinished business below.” Usually each session is a bout between two boxers. But the volatility of today’s widely disparate opposing targets objectives suggests that two gangs are going at it — and they’re just getting started.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar starts with the BOE. But one of the pre-open reports is reliable for influencing price action. And any reaction to a pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction the post-open reports. The last pre-open report is the week’s third Housing sector report, which makes it vulnerable either to confirming a previous outlier or to being an outlier.
*Bank of England policy statement
7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET