Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Digging in, or done digging?
Relevant level holds a retest and a re-retest.
The Globex exit’s setup already told us at the open that this morning would behave bearishly. It collapsed through the first hour attacking 2751.00, 
then bounced into noon to its 2763.50 corrective target. The bounce was contained by a 61.8% retracement back to session highs, still in the orbit of session lows. That’s a bearish morning.
The same setup could also extend through tomorrow morning. We want to be aware of that if it’s the market’s intent. We also want to know if the market intends to hold its multiple intraday retests of 2756.00, because then the correction may have ended.
This afternoon’s bias-down 2751.50 target was just met to within 2-3 ticks, and its 2757.50 bias-down signal failed to trigger. It failed to trigger after invoking the grace period, a grace period invoked by a signal 1-minute surge yet to be improved, and 2757.50 is still being tested. So, be suspicious — sellers aren’t marginalized. Failing to exploit a recovery from both bias-down parameters would be as bearish as it could have been bullish.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jun 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The OPEC meeting begins in Vienna, which is lovely this time of year. The post-open PMI often influences price action, and happens to sit atop the first 15 minutes of volatility.
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2763.50 | 2766.25 |
| …would target | 2769.00 | 2771.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2754.50 | 2757.50 |
| …would target | 2748.50 | 2751.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… This is going to leave a mark.
Bearish pre-open setup unfolding.
Volatility has infested intraday action. Opening at the 2769.50 bias-down signal began dipping immediately. 
The drop finally accelerated after working through 2767.00. And now 2656.00 has been probed down to 2650.25.
That’s 35-1/2 points off of the overnight high. The overnight high that had probed above yesterday’s high, and then exited today’s open under the earlier overnight low. That being the bearish setup which essentially dictates trending down this morning, and potentially through tomorrow morning.
Closing today back above 2756.00 would suggest the bearish setup’s influence was done. Currently, a corrective bounce with potential to 2763.50 may be forming. If it succeeds (or gets anywhere close) then its injection of optimism will likely fuel another downleg this afternoon. The near-term bullish scenario would be better-served by remaining pessimistic for longer, without extending much deeper.
Extending much deeper would next target 2738.50. That was in-play briefly after Tuesday’s open. Its test would likely fail ultimately, on the way down to fresh lows at 2731.00-2732.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Extreme volatility, squared.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s attack on its 2756.75 bias-down target had recovered to greet Wednesday’s open at its 2773.50 bias-up signal. That would be important at 10:15. Meanwhile, more important was whether the gap up would be maintained through the open, and preferably also extended. That was the only way to extend higher Wednesday, since Tuesday’s buyers had failed to gain traction. The gap up was maintained, but not extended. And then it wasn’t even maintained, failing to trigger the bias-up signal it was already testing. That put into play an objective below at 2763.00 which was not attacked any nearer than natural support at 2767.00. Triggering the afternoon’s bias-up signal put into play its 2779.75 target, which was attacked to within 2 points. Both 2767.00 and 2779.75 became “unfinished business.”
Overnight action’s new info…
For a single session to form BOTH sponsorship AND counter-trend sponsorship that triggers widely disparate objectives, already reflects an unstable market. Preventing either objective from being fulfilled is instability — squared. So, we ended yesterday by looking for S&Ps volatility to expand sharply Thursday. And it looks like overnight action got the memo. Globex’s initial 2770.00-2775.00 range gradually expanded to attack 2777.00 and then surged to test 2785.00. That was already retracing back down before midnight. Europe’s opens were greeted back down at 2777.00, and the slide extended sharply lower to 2762.00. Now a bounce is touching 2770.00, yesterday’s late low.
If, then…
From yesterday’s Market Wrap: S&Ps volatility should expand sharply Thursday, whether ranging more widely or trending sharply. How about a little of both. Each of the “unfinished business” above and below were met — including another gap fill, which combines with yesterday to make a pair. Now the overnight 23-point reversal is trying to recover back into yesterday’s range. It will probably find that 2767.00 has more intraday influence than it does overnight. And probing even 3 points above it (which is testing this morning’s 2769.50 bias-down signal as resistance) is still likely to resolve down to retest or attack 2756.00. Also, reversing the overnight probe above yesterday’s high back under the earlier 2770.00 overnight low, through this morning’s open, would point down aggressively through this morning, if not also through tomorrow morning. Having said all that, forming all of the basis for reversing down, but holding, would be as bullish as it could have been bearish.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2763.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2761.50 bias-down target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2769.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2774.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.