Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An inverted Head & Shoulders had formed fully by Thursday’s close, but Friday did not resolve the pattern — which can either trigger above 1.1322 or break lower to 1.1228 before launching a rally.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already probing back above Thursday’s close in the afternoon, Friday’s open was still probing its resistance but not extending.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 15.15 buy signal was being tested after Thursday’s close but still holding as resistance overnight, which persisted intraday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted from a position of weakness for still testing the 147-17 pullback limit. The initially negative knee-jerk reaction only blipped-down to test the 147-08 sell signal down to 147-01 before snapping back up above Thursday’s high. The original 148-02 buy bounce limit is being tested into the weekend.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing an additional dime under the 62.00 pullback limit overnight was recovered Friday to probe prior highs above 63.00. The sell signal can be raised Monday.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already printing a fresh low overnight, Thursday’s dip to fresh lows wasn’t rejected to the point of forming a buy signal. .
Mid-day Update… Held up, and held back.
Hovering at post-open highs.
The Employment Situation report’s spike up to 2893.50 didn’t require a retest. But the post-open pullback to 2886.75 was absorbed and reversed up to fresh highs.
The 2892.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2902.00. Renewed signals aren’t required to meet their target unless confirmed through the close. But already probing above the pre-10:15 high up to 2896.50 makes that likely.
None of which seems obvious from the narrow range that has developed. Narrow ranging isn’t unusual for a Friday, being one of the many Friday Factors that are a function of the impending weekend’s illiquidity.
Regardless of the 2902.00 target’s likelihood, a reaction down would be credible for extending. But this being a Friday and probing fresh highs, not yet reversing down as the bias environment lapses would remain more vulnerable to extending higher.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The new week’s calendar is significantly busier than may be suggested by Monday’s single post-open item — which is much more high-profile than it is reliably influential to price action.
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.75 |
| …would target | 2898.75 | 2902.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2884.25 | 2888.00 |
| …would target | 2877.25 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Knee-jerk up holds.
Spiking up on payrolls, recovering its retracement.
2884.75 is this morning’s bias-up signal, and it held a dip back down to it before the Employment Situation report. The reaction spiked up to 2893.50, but only spiked up — no complexity formed that otherwise would have required the spike’s retest.
But its reaction down held tests of 2887.50-2888.00 to av
oid reversing momentum back down. The spike’s higher was retested despite no requirement.
Retesting the spike high also exceeded the 2892.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target is 2902.00. That’s not required, and a probing above the pre-10:15 high would help to confirm. But Friday morning bias signals do tend to persist through the noon hour.
Meanwhile, already having fulfilled the bias-up target, a reversal down would be credible. More difficult to signal, but credible. Back under 2890.75 would start getting a benefit of the doubt that the uside is donw.