Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stumbling out of the weekend.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Already firming into Thursday’s close and overnight, Friday’s Employment Situation report was approached optimistically. Its knee-jerk reaction was a 7-1/2 point spike up to 2893.50 that was retraced entirely through the open. The open recovered to a fresh high at 2896.50. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, firming to 2898.00 through the close. The next higher objective at 2902.00 was put in-play officially, and another new trend high close became a requirement for having closed at a trend high on Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Having no new guidance from the weekend, overnight action is recalling that Friday lacked upside momentum. But not before probing higher with enough complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme.” Initially firming from its 2896.00 open, Sunday night soon blipped-up to 2899.50. And then back down 10 points to 2889.50 by midnight. So, that’s a probe above the prior session’s high, reversed back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low. And through it down to 2889.00. Firming again into Europe’s opens has only now tried extending to test 2894.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Initial overnight strength stopped short of its next higher objective at 2902.00. That’s a calculable objective, but just probing above the prior session’s high can fulfill structural upside pressures. And reversing back under the earlier Globex low could form a bearish “Globex-flip.” The setup requires maintaining the reversal through the open, along with any test of support. Its reward would trend down for at least the morning (also through tomorrow morning if not reversed this afternoon). All of which could develop while leaving two structural setups outstanding. There was already Friday’s new trend high close requiring at least another eventually. Now there’s also the new Globex trend extreme requiring intraday retest. Either could rescue a pullback at some point. The question is whether the rescue prevents or ends a post-open pullback. The answer would come already by preventing, or not, a gap down under the earlier Globex low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2888.75 would be likely to trigger the 2890.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2893.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/6/19) …The upside of topping.
What was that strong-handed distribution about three weeks ago? Whatever it saw on the horizon has yet to arrive, but the quarterly earnings onslaught begins this week. Will a China trade deal trigger a final high, first? During? Rallying day-to-day to higher highs is camouflaging the net-flat intraday action, which itself reflects the rally’s anxiousness. None of which prevents higher highs.
This week’s Saturday Review describes the original distribution, and recent distributive behavior. Further rally potential and the face of its failure are also described.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CVGW, BBBY, AMD, BIIB, JPM, WFC, XLNX, WDC, CY
transcript
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2898.25 | 2902.00 |
| …would target | 2907.25 | 2911.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2887.00 | 2890.75 |
| …would target | 2880.25 | 2884.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s Employment Situation report was approached optimistically. Not so much restrained, but certainly not excessive. Goldilocks might have described it as: just right. The news triggered a 7-1/2 point spike up that immediately peaked, and retraced entirely through the open. Like the approach, the reaction was no so much restrained, and certainly not excessive.
Neither was the reaction reversed. The open recovered through the knee-jerk reaction’s 2893.50 high to a fresh high at 2896.50. Then we saw the definition of restrained, excessive restraint, as the balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways.
Trading narrowly sideways into the weekend isn’t surprising for Fridays. A little more surprising was trading narrowly sideways at early fresh highs. So, a little less surprising was firming to 2898.00 through the close.
The next higher objective at 2902.00 is officially in-play, all of 4 points higher. Not that Friday’s glacial momentum ensures resuming the rally after the weekend. Regardless, closing at a fresh trend extreme on Fridays requires an eventual higher close, even if the weekend were exited in pullback mode — which touching 2902.00 might inspire.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.