Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight gapped up Monday and extended through the inverted Head & Shoulders 1.1320 neckline, attacking the 1.1345 resistance whose recoveries on a closing basis would confirm the trend has reversed up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already testing the 1301.50 buy signal before Monday’s open, which gapped up and extended to attack 1308.00 before dipping back down to 1301.50 as support. No “unfinished business” would be left outstanding below if an upleg were to begin.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Testing and retesting the 15.15 buy signal for a couple of days finally broke higher into Monday’s open, probing it by a dime and posturing to close above it where a new upleg would be launched.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip held a test of the 147-08 sell signal but only bounced up to 148-02 resistance. Monday held resistance, so closing back above it would now signal an upleg underway.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The weekend was entered and exited rallying to fresh highs attacking 64.45. This leg’s 65.00 and 67.00 targets of the bottom’s massive inverted Head & Shoulders reversal pattern remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 62.90 as support.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already rallying Sunday night tested 2.71 resistance Monday morning, which closing above would be bullish, but preferably after reacting down from it temporarily to 2.65.
Mid-day Update… Globex-flip flipped?
Morning influenced lapsed. But it hasn’t been invalidated.
The open’s Globex-flip setup produced the post-open 8-piont collapse, and the 2884.00 bias-down target test. Despite bouncing, the balance of the morning was contained by the 2890.75 bias-down signal. The noon hour entry dipped to 2887.75.
The noon hour itself firmed but never touched the 2895.50 bias-up signal. That’s being tested now by 5 ticks as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing.
Not triggering the afternoon’s bias-up kept alive potential for reinstating the bearish Globex-flip’s influence. Back under 2893.25 would start suggesting as much, which could trend down through tomorrow morning. Otherwise, continuing to improve above this afternoon’s 2895.50 bias-up signal would target a retest of the 2899.50 overnight high, and probably 2902.00, if not also fulfilling the eventual higher close requirement.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 9, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs openings report can contradict an influential Employment report — which Friday’s payrolls was not — or contradict its data, which is a possibility.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2892.00 | 2895.50 |
| …would target | 2898.50 | 2902.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2884.00 | 2887.50 |
| …would target | 2877.50 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Nevertheless.
Bisa-down target’s test bounces big.
We knew that quickly taking a sell signal was compelling because the bearish Globex-flip setup was triggering.
That is, opening under Sunday night’s initial 2896.00 low, and Friday’s 2895.25 last relative low, could point down all morning.
Immediately breaking under the 2890.00 signal soon extended down to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2884.00 bias-down target.
Then the market bounced. And kept bouncing. It’s still bouncing.
The 2890.75 bias-down signal triggered, and narrowly missed invoking the brace period. Regardless, it was still being tested at 10:30 when recovering higher would have invalidated it. This is a bias-down environment, and probing above its bias-down signal requires being retraced or already rejected when the bias window lapses.
Fulfilling the bias-down target to within at least 3 ticks relieves it from becoming “unfinished business” if not actually touched. Meanwhile, the Globex-flip setup doesn’t expect this morning to recover, and a lot of buying pressure has been expended when it can’t gain traction for the effort. Back under 2890.75 would start to signal another downleg underway.