Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2886.75 | 2890.75 |
| …would target | 2894.00 | 2898.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2877.50 | 2881.50 |
| …would target | 2870.50 | 2874.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Worth the while.
Open’s slide makes upside target more attractive.
During the Market Tour I noted my reluctance to sell under the 2902.00 target which was just 6-7 points higher. 
I would be more inclined to buy a pullback for its likely recovery. But the open wasn’t greeted there. A slide suddenly began and extended through the open down to 2880.00. And I’m inclined to buy the pullback for its likely recovery.
In fact, we identified 2881.00 as a good spot for the drop to make a stand. The drop originated from an overnight range (blue triangle in lower chart) that broke within 60-90 minutes of the open, which is often impatient weak-handed sponsorship. The 2884.25 bias-down target has held as support through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. A bounce has already touched 2888.50.
None of which prevents retesting the 2880.00 low, or even from extending the decline. There is a “session-long decline” setup that maintained its gap down under yesterday afternoon’s 2892.00 bias environment low after having trended up into the close. So, all but one timing window’s low could be probed intraday.
For now, we’re focused only on intraday setups, but also cognizant of the potential for violated pullback limits to produce fresh lows — and also willing to consider buying fresh lows for another bounce.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Slowing its approach.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s probe above Friday’s 2897.00 high up to 2899.50 was shallow but complex, and qualified as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. That didn’t prevent reversing back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low to form a bearish Globex-flip. A very early post-open entry rode an 8-point collapse, to within 1 tick of the 2894.00 bias-down target, while the balance of the morning held its 2895.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Absorbing the morning’s Globex-flip would be rewarded by retesting the overnight high, which was retested into the close the 2899.50. Monday’s close also fulfilled the eventual new trend high close that became required as of Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
It was close, but no cigar. But it was already close after Monday’s session. Sideways ranging at Monday’s highs ended early when Asia’s opens touched 2900.00 and quickly reacted back down to 2893.00. The reaction down ended early, too. Sideways ranging persisted through midnight and Europe’s opens, and only now has begun firming to attack 2898.00. Meanwhile, neither bias signal has been touched.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The rally’s next higher objective at 2902.00 remains outstanding, and likely — but not required, and not required to be maintained if met. Room for noise up to 2911.00 might also be utilized, but not necessarily. Otherwise, there is once again no “unfinished business” above helping to ensure a recovery. from another intraday dip. Not like yesterday, which had just added a “new Globex trend extreme” to the requirement for another new high close. I’m still going to be reluctant to sell an immediate reaction down instead of buying it for the likely test of 2902.00. Having said that, there’s no bullish reason to revisit yesterday’s 2884.00 low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2894.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2891.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2894.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2902.00 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2898.50 | 2902.00 |
| …would target | 2904.75 | 2908.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2888.00 | 2891.50 |
| …would target | 2880.75 | 2884.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s fresh highs up to 2899.50 weren’t much above Friday’s 2897.00 high. But that was enough room to discern complexity in the probe. 
And complexity qualified the fresh high as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Often the same day, as it did late Monday.
An entire session transpired in between. The overnight probe above the prior session’s high had flipped back under the 2896.00 earlier Globex low to form a bearish Globex-flip. The setup’s morning influence was an 8-point post-open collapse, to within 1 tick of the 2894.00 bias-down target, and holding the bias-down signal as resistance.
Not rejecting Globex-flip in the afternoon would also influence the following morning. But another 6-point dip into the noon hour was recovered through the bias environment to prevent the Globex-flip from regaining traction. And that extended to retest the 2899.50 “new Globex trend extreme,” while also producing the eventual new trend high close that became required as of Friday.
The rally’s next higher objective at 2902.00 remains outstanding, and likely — but not required, and not required to be maintained if met. Room for noise up to 2911.00 might also be utilized, but not necessarily. Almost any immediate reaction down would now have no unfinished business above helping to ensure its recovery.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.