Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2880.25 | 2884.25 |
| …would target | 2887.50 | 2891.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2869.50 | 2873.50 |
| …would target | 2862.50 | 2866.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
I wasn’t interested in being a seller when the market was indicated to open 3 points above its 2893.00 low. But a late break slid sharply to greet the open at 2885.00-2887.00. It continued sliding through the open to 2880.00. A post-open dip would have been more attractive to buy than to sell, for the outstanding attraction back up to 2902.00. But the only bounce got up to 2891.00 during the noon hour. And it was reversed back down to fresh lows attacking 2877.00.
The afternoon’s reversal back down never confirmed that sellers were gaining traction for their efforts, because the bias environment wasn’t probed when it mattered — only exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, but not at the final hour’s entry and the proxy window. Delaying the pre-open break lower until so close to the open reflects weak-handed sponsorship.
That doesn’t mean the drop can’t extend lower, or that momentum will reverse up by default. Not even after the interim dips’ lower and lower lows each reacted back into the bias environment’s range, none of which recovered during a relevant timing window.
Pre-open ECB events and the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes are likely catalysts Wednesday for volatility and choppiness. Already trending up at Wednesday’s open would be likely to extend higher morning. Extending higher would be likely to visit 2902.00, and nothing prevents reversing it back down. Meanwhile, already extending down at Wednesday’s open could extend down to 2861.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s open was already gapping up to 1.1345 resistance whose recovering would confirm Monday’s close above the inverted Head & shoulders 1.1320 neckline. Its resistance held through the close, so immediately extending higher anyway Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday to Monday’s 1308.00 high probed 1310.00 while fluctuating sideways around Monday’s high.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up above Monday’s 15.27 high was brief as the balance of the session fluctuated sideways around Monday’s high, exclusively in positive territory.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s recovery from initially blipping-down had bounced up to 148-02 resistance. Monday’s consolidating resolved in Tuesday’s retest of 148-02 and higher.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing and retesting fresh highs at 64.80 was already reacting down into Tuesday’s open, and extended down to test 63.70 as support. The pullback limit is raised to 63.25 while awaiting the 65.00 target to be met, potentially including its room for noise up to 67.00.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s early weakness didn’t touch 2.67, let alone 2.65, which would be necessary or preferable respectively to finish consolidating so that firming on Wednesday could greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Eyes to tomorrow.
Defensively posturing today ahead of tomorrow’ FOMC Minutes?
Not only the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release, which the past two have been unusually influential to triggering wild intraday volatility. But also the pre-open ECB policy statement and typically wild Mario Draghi press conference.
If the market intends initially to react favorably, and significant resistance begins at 2902.00, then 2897.00 was a little too close two days out. Too, too close.
The open’s drop to 2880.00 has solved that problem. Even after bouncing to within 2-3 ticks of its 2891.50 objective, and not because that is reacted down to 2883.50. But the room back up to the high and through can begin gradually retracing this afternoon while still leaving room for favorable reactions.
Meanwhile, a session-long decline setup is officially disqualified, at least for having avoided two fresh lows. But it was always suspect, so no surprises there. None of which prevents a fresh low, but bouncing remains likelier.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 10, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Is Wednesday an unofficial Central Banks day? The ECB policy statement and ECB Chair Draghi’s press conference are reliable for influencing pre-open price action. The high-profile and influential CPI is released when Draghi first speaks. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes should continue their recent new high-impact for being full of it, “it” being the rhetoric the committee hopes will accomplish what their inaction will not. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell is on the calendar through Friday for meeting with Democrats, which is probably irrelevant.
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*CPI
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET