Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Minutes until the Minutes.
Sloppy, choppy ranging about to abandon its inhibitions.
The open’s bouncing around persisted through the morning, and now also through the noon hour. The morning’s noN-bias is followed by this afternoon’s no-bias signal. The market continues to be inhibited by anxiousness ahead of FOMC Minutes due at 2:00 ET. By the same token, the market continues to be vulnerable to volatility triggered by the Minutes.
We know the catalyst is being greeted prior to probing fresh highs up to 2902.00 or higher. And also that reacting to the news beyond this afternoon’s 2886.00-2891.50 bias signals would be no-bias trending that requires retracement. So, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up — especially if it touches 2902.00 — might be unable to withstand the attraction back down, which could become exacerbated into reversing the trend down.
Similarly, a knee-jerk reaction down — especially if it visits 2981.00 — could reverse up sharply.
Exiting the bias environment beyond either of its 2881.00 or 2897.25 bias targets would invalidate the required retracement. Regardless, volatility is about to come alive, with more predictability than this morning’s sloppy and choppy.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Both of Thursday’s pre-open reports are high-profile, but only one is reliably influential to price action anymore. That could set the tone for reacting to the two post-open Fed speakers, or a pre-open report’s reaction could be inhibited until the two post-open Fed speakers’ remarks are disseminated.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Richard Clarida Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:35 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:40 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2887.25 | 2891.50 |
| …would target | 2893.00 | 2897.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2881.75 | 2886.00 |
| …would target | 2876.75 | 2881.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Choppy sloppy.
Gapping up avoids trending.
The overnight rally came within 1 tick of this morning’s 2891.50 bias-up target. Its resistance was already pushing back when pre-open ECB events and CPI triggered a reaction down to test the 2884.25 bias-up signal as support. The 2887.75 open was within 1 tick of yesterday’s open.
The open has continued attracting price to it since then. More tests of the 2884.25 bias-up signal as support have held, and now 2887.75 is being retested. Already before the open fluctuating between the bias-up parameters, and then through the open almost triggering “Dry Cleaners morning,” the market seemed reluctant to trend.
Meanwhile, multiple test of the 2884.25 bias-up signal as support all but require an obligatory probe lower, probably to 2881.00 if at all. Back under 2885.50 would suggest that’s underway.
Otherwise, fresh highs decisively through 2887.75 would have room to fresh highs, but no predictability of its path before this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
Speaking of which… This morning’s sloppy choppiness might be the product of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes already inhibiting sponsorship. Similarly it reflects the market’s focus on the Minutes. So, a volatile opportunity in its wake remains likely.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Reacting back up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open drop from its overnight range had originated suspiciously close to the open. But it was productive, breaking under the range’s 2893.00 low into the 2885.00-2887.00 open, and through it to 2880.00. Bottoming almost immediately began retracing up to 2891.00 during the noon hour. But that was reversed back down to last-minute probe to fresh lows attacking 2877.00. The close was a quick reaction up to 2882.50-2884.00. Several quick reactions interrupted several late probes to fresh lows, preventing each other from gaining traction in either direction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly sideways up to 2884.00 tried collapsing but stopped 3 ticks short of Tuesday’s last-minute low at 2878.00. Apparently that stretched the rubber band deeply enough, as its snap back up recovered above 2884.00 by midnight and attacked 2889.00 by Europe’s opens. Ranging narrowly sideways again since then has maintained positive territory, and just now broke higher to probe 2891.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was a lot of pessimism at yesterday’s close, without gaining traction that would require extending down. This doesn’t confirm yesterday’s late pre-open break was sponsored by weak hands. We’ll know that if that pre-open break is retraced entirely — now just 3-5 points higher. Similarly, retracing the late break won’t require extending any higher, regardless of the outstanding attraction of fresh highs at 2892.00. Even if we knew with 100% certainty that fresh highs would be probed, today, nothing prevents post-open weakness that saves fresh highs for a reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Shortly before the open, ECB events are a reliable catalyst for volatility and choppiness. Already testing 2902.00 before FOMC Minutes would be vulnerable to reversing back down, notwithstanding an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction and the room for noise up to 2911.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2884.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2886.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2894.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2891.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.