Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2784.75 | 2788.75 |
| …would target | 2792.00 | 2796.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2773.50 | 2777.50 |
| …would target | 2768.00 | 2772.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS, DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence prevented triggering bias-up, despite testing the 2778.00 bias-up signal. Its reward was limited to a 4-point dip that was already recovered when the bias environment lapsing had come within view. The no-bias restraint could ignore the bias-up signal’s resistance, which it did, surging to 2787.50.
That’s 22 points off the morning’s 2765.50 low. There was one chance for last Friday’s 2767.00 prior low to hold its test, and it made the most of it. Oversold RSIs there require an eventual retest, which would likely extend down to 2756.00.
Meanwhile, the gap back up to Thursday’s 2788.00-2788.75 close wasn’t filled but the structure containing it held its test. Friday’s close held above Wednesday’s lows and the optimal 2783.00-2784.00 area, keeping alive Thursday’s Isolation setup targeting 2796.00.
The bearish WedEX didn’t trigger decisively Wednesday and wasn’t rejected decisively Thursday. So, I hesitate to infer anything from its limited influence. But I would anticipate relentless trending through Monday morning in the opening 15 minutes’ direction, until disproved.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW LINKS WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 AM ET START.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s plunge from the ECB news extended down overnight to fulfill the pattern’s minimum objective of filling the gap outstanding from its 2-week old low at 1.1550 and probing under it down to 1.1545. That was largely recovered back into positive territory overnight for an intraday low of only 1.1585, which is not a buy signal.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s failure to close above its 1207.00 buy signal wasn’t itself a sell signal, but it allowed raising the sell signal from 1296.50 to 1301.00. Which is where Friday’s gap down opened, and then plunged to sharply lower lows at 1278.00. Bounces should hold 1284.00 while maintaining the new downleg’s momentum next targeting 1273.00 and 1260.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Filling two gaps simultaneously Thursday at 17.20-17.30 without trending up intraday had indicated a pullback was likely, probably down to 16.80. Already trending down overnight extended to probe under “lower prior highs” at 16.55 by nearly a dime. Closing back above 16.65 would signal the decline’s momentum is lapsing, but not yet reversing up until also closing back above 16.80. Extending the decline would target 15.80 and 15.25.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight above the 143-16 buy signal extended intraday to 144-10. Its reaction down should hold 143-24 to maintain the recovery’s upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still fluctuating narrowly within the 66.25-66.75 buy signals couldn’t yet ensure absorbing a reaction down that might be produced by impatience from delaying the rally. That impatience arrive Friday morning by dropping back down to 65.60. Friday breakouts in Crude are less credible, so a recovery remains possible if not also likely so long as Monday doesn’t extend Friday’s dip.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already firming overnight to retest the minimum objective at 3.00 gapped up through it Friday morning. This qualifies as a breakout from a multi-session range, so any bearish resolution must avoid confirming with a higher close on Monday.
Mid-day Update… Bearish behavior below.
WedEX influence should be obvious in this context.
If the WedEX’s bearish influence is valid, then it should begin being obvious now. Here, and now. The afternoon’s 2778.00 bias-up signal avoided triggering after invoking the grace period, so this should be the bias environment’s upper-end. And it’s already essentially the session’s upper-end.
So, selling should become obvious — here, and now — or at least upon dipping back under 2775.50 at any time this afternoon.
The setup’s downside need not be very productive. The window’s lower-end should be defined by 2769.50 if tested, or 2767.75. Any lower any later would be attracted to this morning’s oversold RSIs at 2765.50, whose retest all but ensures extending down to 2756.00.
Fresh session highs would be triggered above 2779.00, targeting 2783.00-2784.00, possibly 2788.00-2788.75. And fresh highs can’t be ruled out, since NDX has outperformed among the intraday index recoveries while the Dow has underperformed. These relationships are meaningful if they persist through the close.