Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar isn’t entirely bare, but neither report has a track record for influencing price action. Any reaction to the pre-open report would likely be duplicated in reaction the post-open report.
James Bullard Speaks
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2772.75 | 2776.75 |
| …would target | 2779.00 | 2783.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2765.25 | 2769.50 |
| …would target | 2757.50 | 2761.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Climbing back up the high-dive.
Gap down being corrected.
There’s no bullish reason to revisit 2767.00. Its test Friday morning launched the intraday rally. 
Returning to it now only means its rally has failed, and the next lower objective of 2756.00 is in-play. The open’s touch of 2767.00 did extend down to 2761.25, but quickly recovered back to the open.
Rather than resume, the decline has been retraced to test the 2775.00 origin if its last overnight downleg. This being a bias-down environment, its 2777.50 bias-down signal could be tested.
Bouncing back above 2767.00 began too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. But it’s unlikely to be rejected abruptly. Regardless, back under 2771.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, recovering the bias-down signal could fill the gap back up to Friday’s close.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Expiration mirage.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s inside day persisted overnight until Europe’s opens. Then price action compensated for the delay. Ranging around Thursday’s 2788.00-2788.75 close broke lower to 2773.50, then fluctuated choppily between 2771.00-2782.00 through Friday’s open. A mid-morning plunge held a critical test of 2767.00 lower prior highs, and quickly recovered well before noon — leaving behind oversold RSIs that still require a retest. The afternoon bias environment exit surged to nearly fill the bap back up to Thursday’s close, holding at or above 2383.00-2384.00 through Fridays close. Bearish WedEX was nominally influential, if at all.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped-down to 2779.00 and snapped back up to attack 2787.00. The blip-down was repeated, slower at first, and then becoming a plunge to 2772.25. Flat-to-lower ranging is now attacking Friday’s low to within 1 point at 2766.50, erasing almost all of Friday’s recovery
If, then…
Oversold RSIs at Friday’s low require a retest, which can be neutralized at before the open. Testing it before the open can still use its support to launch a bounce. Maybe touching 2767.00 post-open and recovering through the opening 15 minutes can also bounce this morning. But there’s otherwise no bullish reason to be revisiting 2767.00, and its retest would likely extend down to 2756.00. That said, impatiently resuming the decline immediately does have the best chance at recovering sooner. The bearish WedEX didn’t trigger decisively Wednesday and wasn’t rejected decisively Thursday. So, I hesitate to infer anything from its limited influence Friday afternoon. But I would anticipate relentless trending through Monday morning in the opening 15 minutes’ direction, until disproved.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2775.00 would be likely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2769.50 would be likely to exceed the 2772.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/16/18) …Turning point.
This week closed unchanged from last Friday, but that’s a deceptively neutral characterization of the market. Actually, the week began with a rally that quickly peaked at what would be the week’s high. Four sessions ranged choppily sideways, supported by last Friday’s high/close. Then Friday’s gap extended down test last Friday’s low, and barely recovered to unchanged.
Maybe neutral isn’t a terribly wrong characterization. But it lacks two important pieces of context. That it was a contrast to the rally preceding it, and that it hovered around the maximum for being only a corrective leg.
Last week’s Saturday Review listed the litany of risks, influences and distractions that formed a minefield to cross. Perhaps ending neutral on the week is a success for the rally. But a lot of buying pressure was expended to maintain neutral, without gaining traction for the effort. Was it distribution? Did Friday’s dip satisfy the distribution? How will we know the difference on Monday?
These questions and more are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ORCL, MU, AMTD, SQ, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOG, TSLA