Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2788.75 | 2792.50 |
| …would target | 2794.25 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2781.00 | 2784.75 |
| …would target | 2773.75 | 2777.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open was greeted by already bouncing off of the 2782.25 overnight low. That didn’t leave much for a post-open rally, gapping up to the 2791.00 origin 
of Monday’s late drop. The retracement was likely because of the drop’s late timing. The morning only consolidated back down to unchanged at 2786.00.
A brief surge to 2794.00 peaked at noon, within 1 tick of Monday’s 2794.25 high. That wasn’t too pessimistic to prevent reversing down. The brief surge was doomed anyway, having left “unfinished business below” outstanding from the morning at 2782.00 bias objective. The reversal extended into the final hour, attacking 2782.00 to within 3 ticks and neutralizing it.
Turnabout is fair-play At least, it was for the late low, which had stopped optimistically short of touching the overnight low. Like noon’s peak, which was 1 tick short of touching Monday’s high before reversing down, the late low launched a 9-point rally back to the 2791.00 open. The session ended back in positive territory above Monday’s 2786.00 close. No new unfinished business was left outstanding.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is resuming its collapse. Tuesday’s extension qualifies as part of the prevailing downleg, since the interim consolidation was kept shallow. A low, let alone a recovery , is premature.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s narrowly ranging inside day didn’t extend Monday’s gap-fill of Thursday’s 1.1812 close, but neither did it confirm that the filled gap is holding. Not until an afternoon USD surge that took the Euro down to at least attack 1.1745, whose break would still reverse the trend down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s touch of the 1307.00 buy signal was reversed overnight to touch the 1296.50 sell signal at Tuesday’s open. Its test held, too, as the range persists.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday almost filled the gap back to Friday’s 16.75 close before bouncing back to the 16.95 target that was already fulfilled Monday. Back under 16.80 would still target 16.55.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s session was not an inside day, but it only probed slightly under Monday’s low while ranging narrowly. There’s still room down to 142-00 while still being recoverable. Closing any lower would be likely to resume the recent downtrend.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Piercing 66.25 overnight was retraced before Tuesday’s open, and then repeated intraday. The rally attempt gets a benefit of the doubt to launch a new upleg, but requires immediate follow-through.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to 2.85 resistance wasn’t extended higher Tuesday, which would have been optimal to confirming the interim pullback was done. Regardless, resuming the bounce Wednesday would still greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Shallow dips, shallow blips.
Brief fresh high only attacked yesterday’s.
This morning’s gap up back to late yesterday’s 2790.00 sell signal was retraced back down to its 2786.25 target. Natural support from the gap-fill back to yesterday’s close defined the bias environment’s lower-end, until the bias environment began lapsing.
Like yesterday, a rally leg has inserted itself between bias environments. Surging out of the morning’s bias environment peaked at 2794.00, attacking yesterday’s high to within 1 tick. The noon hour didn’t extend any further, and this afternoon’s bias-up signal failed to trigger.
A clean no-bias triggered. The bias environment should be defined by either 2787.00-2793.00 bias signal if tested.
Meanwhile, “unfinished business below” is at this morning’s 2782.00 bias-down signal. I’m otherwise a little suspicious about near-term weakness since yesterday’s high was only attacked and not pierced. But I’ll still take seriously a break lower coming out of the bias environment.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy. It’s also very high-profile and influential, beginning with the pre-open PPI report. Price action might become inhibited ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement. Its reaction is reliably active, and my favorite trading day. More so during the Fed chair’s quarterly Q&A. My monthly WedEX signal should trigger, too, projecting bias into and out of the weekend.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Wednesday Expiration signal
3:00 PM ET