Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2789.25 | 2793.00 |
| …would target | 2794.25 | 2798.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2783.25 | 2787.00 |
| …would target | 2778.25 | 2782.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Retraced, but not refreshed.
Actual intraday recovery holds on.
Bounce after bounce after bounce overnight repeatedly recovered yesterday’s late 6-point drop under its 2790.00 sell signal. Each bounce was followed by another drop. So many bounces and recoveries that the setup’s likely intraday recovery (for having originated so late) could have been dismissed. But, no need for that, since the last overnight dip was also recovered to open back above 2790.00.
Which once again stopped recovering. But unlike the repeated overnight drops, the post-open reaction down was limited to 2786.00. That’s natural support at yesterday’s close, and it has held.
This morning’s 2790.25 bias-up signal also held as resistance, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2782.00 bias-down signal. Having invoked the grace period at 10:15, no-bias triggered late. Without yet producing a fresh post-open low, its downside objective can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment at fresh post-open highs — at least, above its bias-up signal.
A fresh high post-open high would likely also retest yesterday’s 2794.25 high. Otherwise, the downside objective would become “unfinished business below,” likely to attract more selling pressure.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight chop.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s action had promised an active session, and Monday didn’t disappoint. The overnight gap down to 2774.00 had been recovered to fluctuate around Friday’s 2782.50 close up to 2786.50, greeting Monday’s open above prior highs at 2784.00. Having escaped last week’s pattern of rejecting early fresh highs — or, at least, absorbing the pattern when it developed overnight — the morning did almost nothing. Actually, the morning did do one thing, ranging up to 2788.50, before the noon hour extended to 2794.25. No traction was gained during the afternoon, leaving the final hour to fluctuate narrowly sideways. A very late break under 2790.00 collapsed quickly to 2784.00-2785.00, but its timing was too late to be predictive, if it’s even sustainable.
Overnight action’s new info…
The late break proved to be temporary — three times. It was recovered completely soon after the Globex open, back up to Monday’s late sell signal at 2790.75. And then another collapse retested the 2784.00 low. Another recovery was also retraced by another collapse. Yet another recovery finally probed a fresh high up to 2792.00 into Europe’s opens. That’s three recoveries, but now fresh lows are probing yesterday morning’s low down to 2782.50. This leg isn’t a collapse, and there’s no current attempt to recover it.
If, then…
Yesterday’s 2794.25 high tested and held the rally’s next higher objective of 2793.00. There’s room for noise above it that could be tested by another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. But there’s no requirement for another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. This area is the last opportunity to end a correction before starting to require new all-time highs. Regardless, last week’s distribution and rotation out of leadership still threaten to repeat its pattern of rejecting a probe above the prior session’s highs — and a probe above the prior yesterday’s highs would be the likely objective of any post-open rally. Otherwise, even the most bullish longer-term scenario isn’t precluded from launching a pullback here, which is already underway if the open isn’t rallying.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2793.00 would be likely to trigger the 2790.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2787.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2782.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2787.00 | 2790.25 |
| …would target | 2794.00 | 2797.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2778.50 | 2782.00 |
| …would target | 2772.00 | 2775.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s gap down to 2774.00 was recovered to fluctuate around Friday’s 2782.50 close up to 2786.50. Monday’s open was greeted at 2784.00, where the morning fluctuated up to 2788.50. Trending into and out of the noon hour extended to 2794.25.
The rally’s next higher objective at 2793.00 was tested, and held. The response to it wasn’t very reactive, dipping only to 2789.50, not even touching the morning’s high. (The position-squaring window did break a 2790.00 sell signal and collapse quickly to 2785.00, but that came too quickly to be predictive.) The morning’s post-open low also narrowly avoided touching Friday’s high. All of which is a degree of optimism — not excessive optimism, but enough to be wary of a coming downdraft.
Holding 2793.00 merits being wary of a coming reversal. It’s essentially the highest objective that doesn’t start making new all-time highs any likelier. There’s room for noise above it since it has actually been touched, but not much room. And there’s still a pattern of rejecting early probes above prior session’s highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.