Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s bounce almost threatened 1.1835 whose recovery would make another downleg unlikely soon. Otherwise, back under 1.1745 could still trigger, and would target the low’s gap fill under 1.1550.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Three consecutive tests of 1305.00 have yet to reverse down, despite Friday’s pause. And now Monday has produced a fourth test of 1305.00, also touching the 1307.00 buy signal. Back under 1296.50 would signal the trend reversing down.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already rallying Sunday night to within 3 cents of fulfilling the 16.30 target suggests that Thursday night’s dip to 16.65 was the extent of a correction. Back under 16.80 can now break lower to target 16.55.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Monday to test 142-22 as support can extend down to also test 142-00, and still be likely to recover and also to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down was recovered back to Friday’s close, and then into positive territory. Without closing above 66.25 Monday, its immediate recovery and extension through 67.50 would be optimal to confirming a new rally leg underway.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up extended through Monday’s open, to test 2.95 whose recovery would confirm Friday’s dip back to support was only a temporary detour, and the requirement for at least a close above 3.00 remains intact.
Mid-day Update… Prove it.
Testing big resistance, or breaking it?
This morning’s noN-bias environment wasn’t required either to extend or to reverse, so it did neither.
Or both. Whatever it did was noise, lacking sponsorship that would have signaled its intent at either 10:15 or 10:30.
But the overnight rally had resumed when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. It was already firming when the bias environment lapsing lapsing came within view 10-15 minutes prior. A sell signal at 2784.25 was only touched but not triggered, and then became the launchpad to testing 2793.00 during the noon hour.
Probing this afternoon’s 2793.00 bias-up signal by 1 point at the noon hour’s 2794.00 high still didn’t trigger it. In fact, once again today has triggered nonN-bias. So, there’s no requirement to extend or to reverse, or not to.
In addition to being this morning’s bias-up target, and this afternoon’s bias-up signal, 2793.00 is a relevant objective of the rally. Last week’s pattern of reversing down from fresh highs is still influential, especially after having held another bias-up signal touch like last night. A dip back into this morning’s range at 2786.00 can’t be discounted. breaking under this morning’s range probably can’t be recovered.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The Trump-Un summit in Singapore will likely garner most mainstream media coverage. The Brexit bill returning to the House of Commons might generate some headlines, too. The econ calendar isn’t entirely sparse, with the pre-open CPI being both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2789.75 | 2793.00 |
| …would target | 2796.75 | 2800.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2781.50 | 2785.00 |
| …would target | 2774.00 | 2777.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Non-decisive hovering.
Bias-up signal attracts, then holds.
Reacting down from the 2786.50 overnight high had itself attacked 2779.00. And that was recovered to greet the open at 2784.00. That ended the potential for rejecting last night’s probe above prior sessions’ highs. In fact, the pre-open recovery extended post-open to fresh highs at 2788.25.
Which offered another opportunity to reject a probe above prior sessions’ highs. A pullback was recovered back above 2788.00, and then another pullback recovered. The 2786.50 bias-up signal was still being tested at both 10:15 AND at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. The bias-up target is not in-play, and the early probe above prior highs can be rejected.
Of course, having avoided a clear rejection of the 2786.50 bias-up signal means an off-seting test of the bias-down signal is also not in-play. The early probe above prior highs can be rejected, and back under 2784.00 would signal a reversal underway.