Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Already in a make or break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s intraday sell-off down to 2763.75 had not gained traction for its effort. That didn’t prevent probing lower overnight down to 2755.75. But the lack of intraday traction may have prevented the overnight sell-off from extending. Or from even being maintained. The fresh lows were already recovered before Friday’s open to form a bullish Isolation setup. The morning’s choppy start was entirely appropriate for the setup, as was the afternoon’s relentless trending. The setup’s likely objective to retest Thursday’s 2783.25 high was touched at the close. Both bias setups were also fulfilled, and no “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down to immediately test relevant support from Friday at 2775.00. That was the extent of selling pressure, other than a quick retest of the open’s 2774.00 low. But Friday’s 2782.50 close was soon attacked to within 1 point. A 4-point pullback was already recovering into Europe’s opens, and extended to touch what is this morning’s 2786.50 bias-up signal. Now Friday’s 2782.50 close is being tested as support.
If, then…
Perhaps the most relevant influence to monitor at the moment is last week’s pattern of rejecting early probes above prior highs. There were four, and there were different versions among them. Some of the reversals developed earlier than others, but last night’s would be the earliest if it qualifies through the open. That can cut either way, so not rejecting the fresh high would be bullish for extending higher this morning. Not rejecting the fresh high needs some work, since the fresh highs is currently struggling to hold above Friday’s high. It’s premature at this moment to call it either way — check the Market Tour recording for tactical discussion — but it’s not too late for reversing down to threaten the earlier 2774.00 Globex low. Exiting the open below it, like Friday’s fulfilled Isolation setup, would signal weakness through this morning or through tomorrow morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2784.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2786.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2778.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2777.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2774.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/9/18) …Ka, boom.
An interesting week lies ahead, with all of the challenge and excitement of strolling through a virtual minefield. Distractions include meeting Kim Jong Un in Singapore and the World Cup “kick-off.” Inputs include heightened Brexit focus, and monetary policy statements from the FOMC (with Fed Chair Q&A), ECB and BOJ. And we’ll have a WedEX signal, this being expiration week — quadruple witch, no less.
The market is stepping steadfastly higher into the minefield. Most recently, recovering Thursday’s intraday and overnight selling at Friday’s open, and into the weekend. Cracks started showing among FANGs that triggered the pullback, so does the market’s brief drop reflect excessive pessimism, or does the quick recovery reflect excessive optimism? We could know as early as Monday, but probably no later than Tuesday.
We discuss possible paths and relevant levels in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CRM, CMG, HD, WDC, FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA
transcript
(06/09/2018 08:15)
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review… Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
(06/09/2018 09:32)
Mark: gm
David B: Good Morning
Bill G: gm
jp: gm
(06/09/2018 09:36)
David B: will we know early in the week which event the market is going to focus on?
(06/09/2018 09:50)
Bill G: Wouldn’t a move just short of 2800 look like pessimism?
(06/09/2018 09:55)
Bill G: Is a sld possible?
David B: option expiration
Bill G: BOJ
David B: usually reactions are weak hands?
(06/09/2018 09:59)
Mark: Neg correlation b/w indexes signaled Thu was not confirmed Fri. Would u expect it to be reinstated in liu of the multiple events next week?
(06/09/2018 10:02)
Bill G: I think Fri
(06/09/2018 10:13)
Bill G: Fri, FB up .22 but the other FANG stocks were dn again
(06/09/2018 10:20)
David B: CRM,CMG
(06/09/2018 10:23)
David B: HD,WDC
(06/09/2018 10:36)
Bill G: My data shows 186.43 as low
(06/09/2018 10:45)
Mark: thx
Bill G: thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2783.25 | 2786.50 |
| …would target | 2789.75 | 2793.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2774.00 | 2777.50 |
| …would target | 2767.50 | 2771.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s sellers had gained no traction for their efforts down to 2763.75, while expending a lot of selling pressure that left no “unfinished business below.” Another rally effort Friday was likely, and the overnight drop to 2755.75 didn’t change that.
In fact, the overnight drop facilitated Friday’s rally, by allowing the open to isolate the fresh lows to the overnight. So long as the pre-open recovery wasn’t retraced back down to Thursday’s lows, the Isolation setup was intact.
The Isolation setup performed normally, getting a choppy start off of the 2769.00 open, but soon extending to higher highs. The setup’s usual reward is to retest the origin of the leg that was eventually isolated — that’s Thursday’s 2783.25 high. It was touched at the close.
The morning’s bias setup had fulfilled the offsetting test of its 2778.50 bias-up signal during the noon hour. And the afternoon’s 2782.00 target was fulfilled. Again, no “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’LL EMAIL LINKS TO THE 9:30 AM SATURDAY REVIEW IN THE MORNING.