Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to Wednesday’s 1.7700 close immediately dipped to touch the 1.1735 sell signal. It’s likely to break so long as 1.1790 now holds resistance.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Yet another higher probe above the prior Thursday’s 1305.00 gap — this time, to the 1307.20 buy signal — was retraced ahead of Friday’s open, keeping the door open to resolving down and resuming the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Because of Thursday’s flat confirmation session,a pullback targeting 16.55 before producing an eventual third higher close was likely. An overnight dip to 16.65 was retraced back into Thursday’s range to attack the 16.88 buy signal, before resolving down again into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above 142-22 Thursday had at least created a position of strength to help absorb another dip to 142-00. It wasn’t utilized by Friday’s inside day, which could extend higher first, with room up to 145-00 before signaling a new rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight and into Friday’s open attacked the 66.25 buy signal to within 1 penny before dipping to 65.15. There’s still little or no bullish reason to further delay launching a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap back down to Wednesday’s close didn’t negate Thursday’s gap up, but likely only corrected it. And there’s still room for noise down to 2.85 before suggesting something bigger underway to the downside, instead of producing the third higher close that is still required from the two-week old confirmed breakout.
Mid-day Update… Paradigm shift.
A different market psyche than pre-open.
The open’s Isolation setup has been very productive. It got a choppy start, but 2767.00 held as support to launch the post-open rally. 
The isolation setup’s usual reward is to retrace the last downleg’s origin, which is yesterday’s ~2783.50 highs.
The morning’s bias setup has been influential, too, putting into play a test of its 2778.50 bias-up signal. The noon hour fulfilled it and probed it by almost 2 points. Its reaction down to 2777.00 is now trying to recover and resume the rally.
Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2775.00 bias-up signal has triggered, targeting 2782.00. That’s difficult to invalidate. Especially with this being a Friday, unless the afternoon bias environment is exited back under a relevant low. Currently, that’s 2773.00-2775.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week starts with a lot of Treasury auctions, and a lot of paper, but no economic report that might otherwise interfere with their sales. The market might breathe a sigh of relief — as in relief rally — after the afternoon results are announced.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2771.75 | 2775.00 |
| …would target | 2778.75 | 2782.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2763.00 | 2766.50 |
| …would target | 2758.00 | 2761.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Slow going.
Bullish setup formed, paused.
The probe under yesterday’s 2763.75 lows was isolated to the overnight. In fact, the 2768.75 open only reacted down to 2767.00, avoiding even a 61.8% retracement of the Double Bottom that had formed at yesterday’s lows. So, the Isolation setup is intact. Its resolution up rarely develops immediately, but it should meanwhile hold support.
Also, the 2768.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering. This puts into play an offsetting test of the 2778.50 bias-up signal.
Meanwhile, the open hasn’t resolved up. Not for lack of trying, having bounced to 2773.50. But its 2772.75 inflection point was only overlapped, and now a reaction down is probing a couple of points under the 2768.25 bias-down signal. The dip’s goal is to find strong-handed buyers, and the pattern is otherwise likely to resolve up.