Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 5, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: What used to be common is now unusual, that the Employment Situation report is released in a vacuum with no other econ reports around it. This allows for a greater reaction to the high-profile influential report. Depending on afternoon bias environment action, the late-afternoon Fed speaker could make a big reaction in a thin market.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2880.25 | 2884.00 |
| …would target | 2887.75 | 2891.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2868.50 | 2872.50 |
| …would target | 2860.00 | 2864.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Settling down.
Upside objective met, rejected.
Opening unchanged within a relatively narrow range doesn’t offer any attractive entry parameters. 
Today was helped by knowing there was “unfinished business” above at yesterday’s 2884.75 open, which had gapped above all prior highs in a trend. And overnight volatility still suggested post-open price action would be choppy.
Narrow ranging into the open nevertheless soon surged up to 2885.75, neutralizing 2884.75 in the process. Neutralizing it, and holding it. The 2881.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and then failed to trigger.
An offsetting test of the 2872.50 bias-down signal is in-play attacked so far down to 2875.00. Holding its test this morning would suggest that sellers are done, so the balance of the session can range choppily sideways ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. Leaving its test outstanding could maintain downside momentum into the noon hour.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Miniaturized.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday was greeted by an overnight overly-optimistic reaction to China trade headlines that had rescued an early dip to 2865.00, and reversed it up to 2886.00. That tested the rally’s next higher objective at 2885.00, which triggered a 10-point dip to support. Its recovery tested the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” up to 2889.25 by noon, but no higher which could have put into play the next higher objective. Instead, a deeper pullback fell to 2869.00 at the afternoon low, breaking under the afternoon’s 2881.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The no-bias trending required its retracement, which a very late bounce did after extending through the close. But a retest of the 2884.75 open’s gap up remains outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness has been scaled down dramatically since Wednesday’s close, but price is still fluctuating relatively widely. Yesterday’s late bounce had extended to fulfill the 2881.00 retracement up to 2883.00, and then reacted down to 2876.00 by midnight. Extending lower through Europe’s opens touched 2874.00, and reacted up to 2880.00. Price is essentially flat from yesterday’s close.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Extending or reversing the trend will be difficult today if not already underway this morning, before the afternoon becomes inhibited ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. Except for the “unfinished business” above at yesterday’s 2884.75 open, nothing currently requires extending the rally to its next higher objective at 2902.00. Similarly, nothing yet requires a reaction down to develop into another downleg. Not, yet. But the two-week old distributive range is still being overlapped, and intraday probes of fresh highs are meeting violent reactions down. Violent, albeit limited by either price or duration, which is only a correction until reversed. Was recent distribution defensive posturing ahead of the quarterly earnings onslaught that starts next week (Or even tomorrow’s Employment Situation report)? Was the China trade headlines normal favorable reaction leveraged by the recent distribution’s ballast dump? Then favorable headlines are still influential and could extend the rally in price, but the distribution’s catalyst should soon limit the rally’s duration.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2879.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2878.00 | 2881.75 |
| …would target | 2885.25 | 2889.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2868.50 | 2872.50 |
| …would target | 2862.75 | 2866.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.