Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2721.50 | 2720.75 |
| …would target | 2728.00 | 2727.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2712.25 | 2711.75 |
| …would target | 2704.00 | 2703.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Digging out slowly.
Rallying into and out of the open.
The overnight blip-up to 2714.75 was ultimately retraced back down to the earlier 2704.50 low.* 
But the open was greeted back up at 2711.00-2712.00 resistance.
Having reacted down from there already, we already knew that simply retesting it during the opening 15 minutes of volatility would be bullish. In fact, a buy signal there immediately triggered at the open, extending up to 2719.50.
Reacting down to 2713.00 and recovering created legs that overlapped the 2716.25 bias-up signal at both 10:15 and 10:30. So, this is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define this window’s lower-end, and an offsetting test of the bias-down signal is not in-play.
Trending during a no-bias or noN-bias environment often isn’t sponsored by strong hands. That’s why trending during these environments is done less often. Trending anyway without reversing is also done less often. Trending this morning would more likely be retraced.
Trending this morning may also be reversed. *That pre-open dip back down to 2704.50 was similar to the dip before Europe’s opens — defensive posturing. Like the recovery overnight that was retraced back to the lows, this morning’s recovery may expend its buying pressure satisfying weak-handed buyers, and find no sponsorship to defend against reversing down. We can give the recovery attempt a benefit of the doubt anyway, which could extend up to 2735.50.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trying to get unstuck.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s eventual slide had fulfilled the intraday’s “unfinished business below” at 2721.50. The recovery attempt failed, and Tuesday’s cash session was greeted by a larger and steeper drop to 2712.50 before the open. And that was extended to 2703.25 through the first half-hour. But that was also the end of the downside momentum. No upside momentum replaced it, so several wide swings defined a 11-12 point range that gradually pierced lower and lower lows down to 2700.50. The last half-hour bounced back up to the range’s last relative high at 2711.00-2712.00. It had become too late anyway to recover anything predictive, or to offset that the range had gained no traction either way.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s post-open range has largely held overnight, but for a brief probe above it. The Globex open had quickly retraced yesterday’s late surge by 61.8% to 2704.50, but it was eventually recovered back up to 2711.00-2712.00. Dipping to 2707.00 ahead of Europe’s opens was also recovered, and briefly extended to attack 2715.00. That was retraced as quickly back down to retest 2707.00, before recovering again to retest 2711.00-2712.00 — and being a 61.8% retracement of the earlier brief attack on 2715.00, its calculable resistance has pushed price back down to attack 2707.50.
If, then…
One of the instructions from Tuesday’s Market Wrap was that gapping up today above yesterday morning’s 2715.50 high would be credible for bouncing intraday. Both its resistance and its relevance are confirmed by having tested it overnight to within 3 ticks, and then reversing back down 8-1/2 points to that leg’s origin. Retracing that overnight high by 61.8% is calculable resistance, and happens to coincide with the natural resistance of yesterday afternoon’s highs. Their resistance has combined to push price back down sharply, but not yet irrecoverably. Overcoming resistance could rally through the morning. Otherwise, it’s not too late to greet the open back down at yesterday afternoon’s 2701.00 lows to try snapping back up again. But failing to hold the low would be credible for probing fresh lows, to 2695.00-2696.00 and possibly to 2689.00 or 2682.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2707.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2703.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2711.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2716.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2713.50 would actually be likely to also trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2717.50 | 2716.25 |
| …would target | 2724.25 | 2723.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2704.50 | 2703.50 |
| …would target | 2696.75 | 2695.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s action developed overnight, and then through the open, and then it stopped. “Unfinished business below” at 2721.50 was neutralized by fresh lows before Europe’s opens. (Before, i.e. defensive posturing.) Another drop, larger and steeper, fell to 2712.50 before the open. And that was extended to 2703.25 through the first half-hour.
That’s a lot of momentum, a lot of ground covered, and a lot of supports broken. But that was also the end of the downside momentum. No upside momentum replaced it, so several wide swings defined a 11-12 point range that gradually pierced lower and lower lows down to 2700.50.
The last half-hour’s bounce to 2711.00-2712.00 ended at the range’s last relative high. It had become too late anyway to recover anything predictive, or to offset that the range had gained no traction either way.
Gapping down under the afternoon’s 2701.00 low would be credible for probing fresh lows, to 2695.00-2696.00 and possibly to 2689.00 or 2682.00. Gapping up above the morning’s 2715.50 high would be credible for bouncing intraday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.