Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… No bias > Late bias.
Neither bias signal touched, so beware delayed efforts.
This morning’s opening touch of its 2872.25 bias-up signal never recovered, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2863.75 bias-down signal. Probing it down to 2862.25 reversed back up to natural resistance at 2871.00, “unchanged” from yesterday’s close.
Extending higher would have suggested this morning’s dip was only “backing-and-filling” which I had described this morning. Its reward would at least fresh highs around 2875.50, if not also launching a new upleg. But 2871.00 held its test and retest entering and exiting the noon hour.
Bias-up 1 tick higher wasn’t even touched. This is a no-bias environment. And there really is no bias, as today’s range continues narrowing. Although 2871.00 is being tested again, and its break would likely target 2875.50.
So, if this morning’s dip wasn’t “backing-and-filling” then was it a warning shot across the rally’s bow? Another downleg would likely be much steeper and deeper. And the 2862.25 low’s retest is already required for its RSIs having been simultaneously oversold there.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 3, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s payrolls week, so a couple of private sector looks at employment are released. ADP is both high-profile, and influential to price action. Meanwhile, it also allows us to calibrate sentiment to some degree. And any reaction to its pre-open report is often duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2867.25 | 2871.25 |
| …would target | 2872.25 | 2876.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2860.75 | 2865.00 |
| …would target | 2854.75 | 2859.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Dry Cleaners might be better.
Range bound opening.
Piercing yesterday’s late 2873.50 high by 1 tick before this morning’s open was actually a delayed trending attempt. 
Overnight action had otherwise been contained, and fluctuating around unchanged. Delaying an overnight trending attempt until coming to within 60-90 minutes of the open tends to fail, and often reverses direction.
For essentially opening unchanged and within a sideways overnight range, post-open action has been as choppy and trendless as might be expected: Higher highs could have developed first, but didn’t. The opening bar touched the 2872.25 bias-up signal and dropped to 2867.00. Bouncing to 2871.00 reacted down lower to 2865.75, bouncing to 2871.00 again.
Having touched the bias-up signal before triggering no-bias, an offsetting test of its 2863.75 bias-down signal was put into play. Recovering the 2872.25 bias-up signal through 10:30 would have invalidated that, but the attempt has stopped 2 ticks short. Probing it this late would be “no-bias trending,” doomed to failure — but possibly not until having reached 2875.50.
Meanwhile, and inflection point at 2871.25 wasn’t touched until 10:30 instead of sooner, and isn’t yet overlapped by at least 3 ticks to be more than noise. Back under 2869.00 would start to signal the offsetting test of 2863.75 is underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Wide sideways range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Monday would likely be rewarded by some form of retesting two-week old highs, to at least 2855.00 if not also probing room for noise up to 2869.00. The least of it was tested overnight after gapping up Sunday night to and through the morning’s bias-up parameters. Continually overlapping the 2859.00 open through the first hour formed a “Dry Cleaners morning” that resolved up to test the rest during the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 reacted back down to 2866.50, holding 2869.00, and not putting into play 2902.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
While Bitcoin experiences a nostalgic overnight $850 surge, neither bias signal has yet been touched by a choppy overnight range. After bouncing back up to 2872.00 through the futures close, Globex gapped down to 2867.50. Its reaction up to 2872.00 was reversed to lower lows at 2865.00 by midnight. Ranging narrowly sideways through Europe’s opens attacked this morning’s 2863.75 bias-down signal to within 3 ticks. Now resolving up, or trying to, has retraced to within 3 ticks of the earlier 2872.00 Globex high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Last night’s pullback resembles the pullback that didn’t happen at the two-week old high. That was the session-long Thursday rally, and limiting the next session to backing-and-filling could have resumed the rally last week. Instead, its weekend was entered and exited by a collapse to fresh lows that seemingly confirmed the distributive pattern. But price only ranged there, eventually recovering to now overlap the distribution range’s upper-end. In charting, pattern means pattern, so this area’s retest should resolve similarly if the distributive pattern remains intact. Stretching the rubber band a little further this morning would still be vulnerable to reversing down, until the timing window lapses. Maintaining fresh highs into the noon hour could become something more substantial to the upside.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2866.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2863.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2869.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2872.25 bias-up signal.