Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2868.00 | 2872.25 |
| …would target | 2874.75 | 2879.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2859.25 | 2863.75 |
| …would target | 2852.25 | 2856.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” setup, for appearing ahead of the weekend, had made Monday’s open likely either to gap up or to gap down. 
And it didn’t gap down. In fact, Sunday night’s open had already gapped up and extended through the morning’s bias-up parameters. Hovering at its highs into the open without bothering to correct reflected more optimism lying ahead. And even the “Dry Cleaners morning” setup didn’t prevent resolving up into the afternoon.
The reward for Friday’s pattern resolving up was to retest two-week old highs. By proxy, gap-fill, or actually probing room for noise would suffice, and the rally neutralized it all. Room for noise up to 2869.00 was met and held through the afternoon bias environment. Surging after the position-squaring window up to 2873.50 still found time to retrace entirely back down to 2866.50, so 2869.00 held. Otherwise, its recovery would essentially put into play 2902.00.
So, still overlapping the upper-end of the two-week old distributive pattern raises the question, where’s the distribution? Was it the cause of Monday’s restrained rally? Or, has strong-handed distribution suddenly become so universally patient that another upleg is underway? If the latter, then its upleg should be steep. If the former, then another second-day reversal like this area’s last test should be obvious by noon Tuesday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Unfinished business below at the 1.1278 low close’s gap-fill was neutralized Monday morning. Its slow approach, and obligatory support upon actually being tested, suggests that it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite originating from Friday’s pre-open touch of the 1291.30 pullback limit, its intraday bounce didn’t persist through the weekend as Monday’s open was greeted by a reaction down to Thursday’s 1293.50 low. The buy signal remains unchanged at 1308.50, but with fresh lows likely first.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday fluctuated entirely within Friday’s range, hovering above the gap back down to Thurdsay’s close. No lower low or retest of the low is required, and the buy signal remains unchanged at 15.25.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 149-11 pullback limit was probed Sunday night down to 149-00 and then lower intraday Monday to attack 148-00. There is room for noise to 147-17/147-25 before even suggesting momentum is reversing down.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above all prior highs on Friday had remained untested as “unfinished business” to attract price higher after the weekend. Sunday night did rally back to Friday’s high, and trended higher Monday morning to attack 61.75. Pullbacks must hold 60.55 to maintain upside momentum.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down to a fresh extreme Friday afternoon all but requires a lower low before reversing up can be credible. The setup is usually fulfilled Monday, but gapping up out of the weekend helped to prevent a fresh low intraday. However, the new price action creates a new setup that would form a bottom by closing positive after probing a fresh low intraday.
Mid-day Update… Keeping it up.
Late bias-up keeps momentum intact.
Fresh highs up to 2864.50 during the morning’s bias environment had confirmed upside momentum remained intact. 
The confirmation came a little early, and could have been rejected back under 2859.00 (this morning’s Dry Cleaners signal level). But the pullback limit was only attacked before recovering through the noon hour, reflecting weak-handed sellers.
The noon hour’s exit probed the 2866.00 two-week old high by 2 ticks, fulfilling the likely structural reward for gapping up. The high gap’s 2855.00 retracement, or the 2861.00-2863.00 gaps could have neutralized the attraction. But their reactions down haven’t attracted reinforcements, so upside momentum remains intact.
Now the afternoon’s 2864.00 bias-up has triggered, late. It could have been rejected back under 2863.25. But the reversal signal was only touched, and the signal was recovered in time to trigger. The high’s room for noise up to 2869.00 — which is also this afternoon’s bias-up target — remains in-play.
Having fulfilled the structural reward for gapping up, reversing down would leave no “unfinished business” to help recover. Meanwhile, the recent intraday distributive pattern keeps today’s rally vulnerable. And I’m not at all biased by really wanting to label my next post “April Fool’s”.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 2, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Durable Goods report is both high-profile and has a track record for influencing price action Coming one day after divergent reflections from ISM and PMI creates an environment for surprise in one direction or the other.
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET