Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2859.75 | 2864.00 |
| …would target | 2864.75 | 2869.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2853.00 | 2857.50 |
| …would target | 2847.50 | 2851.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sunny side up.
A “Dry Cleaners” morning setup combines with a higher objective.
The overnight rally to 2860.00-2861.25 had ranged sideways back down to 2854.50, holding up through the open. Its optimism was never corrected pre-open, and the 2859.00 open blipped-up to attack the overnight highs. Its 5-point reaction down never threatened a sell signal before surging to 2863.50 on 10:00 econ reports.
The fresh high completed the 2-week old high close’s 2861.00-2863.00 gap fill. Its 6-point reaction down held above the renewed bias-up target to trigger a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. That’s not very reliable, being so far removed from the price action that created the bias levels.
But the high’s gap fill does suggest its 2866.00 high print will be retested, too. And its retest is likely to include a visit to 2869.00. So, 2869.00 is essentially in-play. Which is credible despite all 5 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints having overlapped the 2859.00 open to form a “Dry Cleaners morning” setup. The setup suggests that price action will be unwieldy, which might delay extending to 2869.00. But 2869.00 remains credible so long the bias environment exit is holding the 2856.00 post-open lows.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gapping up, indeed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
China trade and Brexit probably helped Friday’s opening gap up to 2836.00, testing 3-day old highs by 1 point. But only momentarily as price began dipping to test 1-day old highs down to 2823.00. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing probably supported flat-to-higher ranging up to 2834.00 through late-afternoon. Blipping-up into the last 90 minutes to 2840.00 was retested after the close, which was otherwise still overlapping the opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up above the bias-up signal to 2844.50 and spiked higher immediately through the bias-up target to attack 2854.00. Trending higher touched 2860.00 and reacted back down to 2854.50 through midnight. A fresh high up to 2861.25 has also reacted back down to 2854.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s equilibrium close and ineffectual optimism could be overcome only by gapping up. The reward would be to retest two-week old highs, at least up to 2855.00, probably also the gap-fill back to the 2861.00-2863.00 high close, if not also to probe the two-week old 2866.00 prior high (to 2869.00). All but the latter was done overnight. Which makes a second consecutive close back above 2019.50 less significant to rejecting the week-old bearish trend change: Gapping up to resistance instead of trending there is difficult to attract reinforcements, and upside momentum is jeopardized by touching resistance without also exceeding it through a timing window. Regardless, closing back under 2013.00-2019.50 Monday isn’t necessary to confirm the trend is reversing down, but shouldn’t be far behind if the two-week old distribution pattern — of reversing intraday rallies — confronts Monday’s rally attempt. Wouldn’t THAT be the perfect April Fool’s Day prank.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2853.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2848.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2842.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/30/19) …Up, up, and a wait.
End ‘o-Quarter portfolio window dressing was probably influential on the quarter’s last day Friday. But gapping up to resistance and only ranging sideways doesn’t reflect momentum, and remains vulnerable to resolving down immediately. None of which precludes extending higher anyway, but probably only to the next resistance and only temporarily before resolving down more substantially.
I describe the path higher, along with specifics for the scenarios described above, in this weekend’s Saturday Review. Great questions from attendees are also addressed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WBA, STZ, BIIB, XLNX, VKTX, AAPL, APH, LEN, SQ, LUV
transcript
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
jp: gm
Bill G: gm
—————– (03/30/2019 09:33) —————–
Mark G: gm
—————– (03/30/2019 10:02) —————–
ljr iPhone: does this type of distribution resemble sept/oct before drop into dec?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:06) —————–
jp: Did Fri. close satisfy o/b rsi’s ?
jp: ty
—————– (03/30/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings will play into the market? have they been discounted?
ljr iPhone: stocks: WBA, STZ both earnings this week
—————– (03/30/2019 10:13) —————–
Bill G: Blackout period for buybacks may influence for most of Apr?
David B: do you think this distribution is reflecting a sell on the news of possible china deal ?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:17) —————–
David B: the market is closed on good friday so when does options expiration happen?
David B: when does options expire?
David B: ok
David B: BIIB,XLNX
—————– (03/30/2019 10:20) —————–
David B: so does that change the wedex?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:22) —————–
ljr iPhone: VKTX (just watching for long entry), aapl, SQ (more Apple competition now)
David B: APH,LEN
—————– (03/30/2019 10:24) —————–
ljr iPhone: dunno
—————– (03/30/2019 10:34) —————–
ljr iPhone: LUV
—————– (03/30/2019 11:00) —————–
ljr iPhone: Boeing 737 grounded
ljr iPhone: not really positive
—————– (03/30/2019 11:03) —————–
ljr iPhone: thx very much
David B: Thanks
Bill G: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!