Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ calendar is empty around the morning’s payrolls report. Both before, and more importantly after. Its reaction will have likely played out before the open, so that trending would be likely to extend and a reversal would find traction.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
William Dudley Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2613.50 | 2611.00 |
| …would target | 2621.00 | 2618.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2598.50 | 2596.00 |
| …would target | 2590.50 | 2588.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Extra pessimism.
Duplicating yesterday afternoon’s plunge.
The overnight bounce into the 2635.00-2638.00 area had not yet proved its sponsorship was strong-handed. 
A pullback into the earlier overnight channel barely hesitated before plunging through it to 2617.00. A close-quarters Double Bottom at the low told us to expect lower lows. Ranging sideways into the open did resume the decline, first a little and then a lot, down to 2594.00.
And now even more, as a brief bounce to 2601.00 resolved down to 2591.25.
This low is reacting up, not yet enough to reverse the trend up. But at least a corrective bounce would start to be credible back above 2600.00 (being tested now), targeting 2607.00. Recovering into positive territory would be difficult, and very unlikely… so, that much more substantial if actually done.
Meanwhile, the dominoes are falling. The next lower objective is 2588.00, and under 2584.50 would have little hope of avoiding the longstanding objectives at 2509.00-2511.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A little too restrained optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s rally from 2623.00 up to 2658.00 was corrected overnight but also recovered overnight to up to 2658.50. But no higher, despite the afternoon rally having gained traction. Monday’s decline had not attracted durable buying overnight, either. The consequence to each was morning weakness. Wednesday’s weakness reflected anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, which reacted back up to 2658.50. That was until the bias environment exit, which suddenly rejected the recovery, leaving behind overbought RSIs yet to be retested. The balance of the session plunged to 2629.00, retracing nearly all of Tuesday afternoon’s rally. A small late bounce was early enough to close back above 2630.50 and avoid triggering a hold-short setup.
Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge initially extended to 2624.25, stopping optimistically short of touching Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.25 low. A bounce to 2630.50 was retraced entirely back to the low, which was recovered back up to 2630.50. Europe’s opens were greeted at the upper-end of this channel, which then broke higher to 2636.25. Now that has been retraced entirely back down to 2628.00.
If, then…
Isolating the overnight lower lows by opening Thursday back above 2635.00-2638.00 would be bullish. That was being attempted after Europe’s opens, and now not so much. There’s still time, but only a little. Retesting overnight lows and recovering into the noon hour might still be able to launch a recovery. In either case, the upside reward is a retest of Wednesday’s 2658.50 high, which would all but ensure retesting Monday’s 2783.25 high. Extending yesterday afternoon’s plunge could start to topple the dominoes still waiting below. .
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2633.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2638.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2626.00 bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2640.75 | 2638.25 |
| …would target | 2648.50 | 2646.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2628.25 | 2626.00 |
| …would target | 2620.75 | 2618.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.