The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A little too restrained optimism.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday afternoon’s rally from 2623.00 up to 2658.00 was corrected overnight but also recovered overnight to up to 2658.50. But no higher, despite the afternoon rally having gained traction. Monday’s decline had not attracted durable buying overnight, either. The consequence to each was morning weakness. Wednesday’s weakness reflected anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement, which reacted back up to 2658.50. That was until the bias environment exit, which suddenly rejected the recovery, leaving behind overbought RSIs yet to be retested. The balance of the session plunged to 2629.00, retracing nearly all of Tuesday afternoon’s rally. A small late bounce was early enough to close back above 2630.50 and avoid triggering a hold-short setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
The plunge initially extended to 2624.25, stopping optimistically short of touching Tuesday afternoon’s 2623.25 low. A bounce to 2630.50 was retraced entirely back to the low, which was recovered back up to 2630.50. Europe’s opens were greeted at the upper-end of this channel, which then broke higher to 2636.25. Now that has been retraced entirely back down to 2628.00.

If, then…
Isolating the overnight lower lows by opening Thursday back above 2635.00-2638.00 would be bullish. That was being attempted after Europe’s opens, and now not so much. There’s still time, but only a little. Retesting overnight lows and recovering into the noon hour might still be able to launch a recovery. In either case, the upside reward is a retest of Wednesday’s 2658.50 high, which would all but ensure retesting Monday’s 2783.25 high. Extending yesterday afternoon’s plunge could start to topple the dominoes still waiting below. .

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2633.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2638.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2630.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2626.00 bias-down signal.