Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Extending Wednesday’s rally through the close had quickly peaked at 2655.00 into the Globex open. An overnight dip seemed deep, it measured 15 points down to 2639.50. But it stopped 3 ticks short — optimistically short — of touching the 2638.75 cash session close. 
And overnight higher were recovered almost entirely into Thursday’s open. A shallower 9-point dip post-open was quickly recovered to extend the rally sharply higher. Potential up to 2677.00 was exploited almost entirely Thursday’s afternoon. The final hour’s dip targeting 2664.00 held its test to avoid reversing momentum down, and already recovered up to 2674.00.
Not bad, for a corrective bounce. Which continues to be my interpretation of the rally from Wednesday morning. Its retest of Tuesday’s low. Potential up to 2677.00 can be expanded by at least 1 point, at least for the purpose of defining fresh highs, and still maintain a correction’s measurements. Barely.
Thursday afternoon’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and then entering the final hour above the bias environment high. So, probing fresh highs Friday morning is likely, especially having absorbed a late pullback to 2664.00. Extending higher into the afternoon could put into play higher objectives at 2693.00 and 2703.00. The correction would more likely trend back down during the afternoon, and possibly throughout, regardless of whether the morning had probed fresh highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s ECB policy statement triggered a blip-down to 1.2190 that was reversed into positive territory up to 1.2255. But that has eventually reversed down sharply to fresh lows attacking 1.2140. This is still not an accumulative pattern, so any bounce is likely to fail.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Volatility around Thursday’s ECB events firmed to test 1327.00, only to resolve down and attack 1316.00. Closing lower Friday would target 1294.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite having held 16.55 as support Wednesday, Thursday morning dipped to the 16.40 sell signal without triggering it. Closing above 16.75 would signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce to 142-20 easily held under the 142-25 bounce limit that keeps alive downside potential next targeting 141-04. .
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having tested the lower-end of the past week’s range on Wednesday, Thursday gapped up, but the balance of the session only fluctuated around unchanged. Bounces have room up to 68.90 without yet signaling a new rally leg underway.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s close above 2.78 resistance at the recent range’s 2.82 upper-end was extended to fresh highs at 2.84 in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report. That’s officially a breakout, awaiting confirmation or not by a second consecutive higher close Friday.
Mid-day Update… Sellers staying silent.
Rally persists.
This morning’s rally extended to 2663.00 before reversing again down to 2652.00. But it was only a correction, and the noon hour largely recovered. Fresh highs into the afternoon bias environment probed the 2666.00 bias-up target to 2668.75.
A corrective rally off of yesterday’s lows has room up to 2677.00. Will it all be exploited? Today? Almost any fresh high would be likely at least to resume the rally.
Meanwhile, RSIs that were originally overbought when the rally peaked a half-hour ago have since diverged negatively. Back under 2664.00 would target a test of the 2659.25 bias-up signal, and then lower after the bias environment begins lapsing.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any noticeable reaction to Friday’s pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by its post-open reports. Both of which are high-profile and already likely to influence price action. Also remember that the PMI number is released privately to its institutional subscribers, and that its price reaction is likely to be duplicated when released publicly minutes later.
AMZN, INTC, MSFT earnings
Thursday post-close
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2660.50 | 2659.25 |
| …would target | 2667.25 | 2666.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2649.50 | 2648.25 |
| …would target | 2642.00 | 2640.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.