Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar is unusually busy and spread out for a Monday. None of the items is high-profile, which makes each one more capable of influencing price action if its data were surprising. Meanwhile, the quarterly earnings onslaught winds down.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2673.25 | 2672.00 |
| …would target | 2678.25 | 2677.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2660.25 | 2659.25 |
| …would target | 2651.75 | 2650.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Lower-case pop and drop allow another pop.
Fresh highs avoided, delayed downside developing.
This morning’s premise was to probe yesterday’s highs above 2677.00 because its rally had gained traction, and its late dip had injected pessimism. 
The premise assumed that surging to fresh highs at 2677.50 through the futures close had developed too late to already fulfill the upside objective. None of which was disputed by the overnight range.
A setup developed that I discussed in the pre-open update. It was the breakout from the overnight range above 2672.00, coming within 60-90 minutes of the open. The lateness usually reflects weak-handed sponsorship, which was in-line with the other premise that fresh highs would fail.
The open did surge, but only briefly, and not at all to fresh highs. And it quickly reversed, trending down throughout the entire first half-hour. Yet, yesterday’s 2666.25 cash session close was only attacked, essentilly holding positive territory throughout. That’s an anchor.
The anchor didn’t prevent trending down further. The 2671.25 bias-up signal held to trigger late no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2661.50 bias-down signal. Its test should define the window’s lower-end. In fact, its test and retest down to 2657.75 just bounced to 2666.50.
Nothing prevents trending down much, much deeper under 2661.50 after the bias environment begins lapsing. Exiting the bias environment back above yesterday’s 2666.25 cash session close wouldn’t itself put back into play a probe above yesterday’s highs, but it would be a good start.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pop, chop, then drop?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday extended Wednesday’s rally with the help of an early start after Wednesday’s close. Its push up to 2655.00 into the Globex open was corrected overnight and recovered into Thursday’s open. A shallower post-open dip was quickly recovered to resume the rally. Its potential up to 2677.00 was exploited almost entirely at the afternoon’s late high, gaining traction for its effort. The final hour’s dip met and held its 2664.00 target before firming 2-3 points into the cash session close. Futures retraced the rest on the way to 2677.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
The catalyst for recovering from Thursday’s late dip was AMZN earnings. AMZN soared to new highs, but S&Ps pulled back to test and retest 2666.00, resisted by 2672.00 above — the upper-end is being retested now. The hot-and-cold relationship shouldn’t be surprising. The period before individual equity earnings events are mostly inhibiting to the broader market, which the late pullback expressed. The dip rid the market of weak longs and trapped shorts, while injecting a bit of contrarian pessimism. The period before individual equity earnings events are rarely influential to the broader market, which the overnight range has expressed.
If, then…
Probing fresh highs this morning was already likely when yesterday’s final hour was entered above its bias environment highs. That completed a setup, indicating that the rally had gained traction for its efforts. Holding the late dip to its 2664.00 target helped by correcting the rally. The intraday rally had stopped short of its 2677.00 potential, which also helped. The post-close surge that fulfilled the potential was too late to matter. Unless the open fails to hold a retest of 2664.00, and triggers bias-down. Otherwise, slightly higher fresh highs remain likely this morning. And fresh highs this morning remain vulnerable to being reversed down through the afternoon. Until reversing down, fresh highs this morning would be vulnerable to extending higher into the weekend, next targeting 2693.00 and 2703.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2664.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2661.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2777.00 would be likely to trigger the 2671.25 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2672.50 | 2671.25 |
| …would target | 2679.75 | 2678.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2662.75 | 2661.50 |
| …would target | 2657.75 | 2656.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.