Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Weak base.
Post-open dip holds lower levels long enough.
Down, down, down. Overnight action already had neutralized the “unfinished business below” at oversold RSIs from yesterday’s 2703.75 low. Lower lows before the open fulfilled more unfinished business below at yesterday morning’s 2702.25 no-bias parameter. This morning’s 2698.75 bias-down target was also tested before the open.
The open blipped up to 2702.25, then reversed down to fresh lows at 2692.25. Down.
The 2698.75 bias-down target was recovered just in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Downside momentum became questionable, especially with attractions below had been neutralized. But their breaks were maintained through the open to indicate the trend is reversing down.
Maintaining a dip through a relevant window doesn’t prevent a bounce. An entrenched downside can encourage a bounce as a temporary correction. Bouncing this morning to 2703.50 might be one such temporary correction. Unless it recovers this morning’s 2705.50 bias-down signal — preferably as the bias environment lapses — then the trend remains down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sponsorship thinning out.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s on-again / off-again bullishness fulfilled minimum upside objectives by probing 3 points above 2715.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding, having met the morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target and triggering the afternoon’s no-bias. While relevant resistance held, relevant support did not, closing back under the 2711.50 down to 2709.00-2710.00 Sounds bearish, and it may be. But the day was also wide-ranging and choppy, so trending has yet to reverse down. But that still triggered a bearish WedEX, albeit passive. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2703.75 low and at the morning’s 2702.25 no-bias parameter.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing at the Globex open soon peaked at 2713.25 and hovered there well beyond midnight. Then price gave way, first back down to natural support at Wednesday’s 2709.00-2710.00 close. Then more dramatically back down to Wednesday’s 2703.75 low. Bouncing into Europe’s opens tested 2709.00-2710.00 but retraced it all as quickly. A narrowing range has developed back down to 2703.75.
If, then…
Already responding to there being no unfinished business above seems bearish. And it may be. But quickly trying to exploit the situation also can mean less sponsorship. If reinforcements aren’t attracted, then the effort will have been premature, and its trapped sponsorship will fuel a short-squeeze. Gapping down under 2702.25 can still reinforce the bearish WedEX. Holding a test of 2702.25 can establish a low that holds through tomorrow morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2702.25 would be likely to trigger the 2705.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2711.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2713.75 | 2713.75 |
| …would target | 2719.75 | 2720.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2705.25 | 2705.50 |
| …would target | 2698.78 | 2698.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday was a day of conflicting signals. So although Wednesday is done, the signal it left us may be inverted, too. That signal is a bearish WedEX. The setup formed by testing resistance at 2715.00 and closing back under the 2711.50 lower-end of the structure containing it.
Closing under 2702.25 would have been more decisive. It’s likely to be tested anyway, being “unfinished business” from Wednesday morning’s no-bias environment. Gapping down under 2702.25 would still reinforce the bearish WedEX. Opening above 2724.00 would be enough strength in time to re-qualify the WedEX as bullish.
Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2703.75 low is also unfinished business requiring a retest. Fulfilling it, and preferably also 2702.25 — without breaking lower — would be bullish going into the weekend. Similarly, their break at any time would be bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” completed its recovery by gapping up Wednesday to test Monday’s 1.2450 high. Closing any higher would confirm the rally had resumed, targeting 1.2510-1.2535.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to gap up Wednesday at fresh recovery highs only ranged sideways intraday, which is still enough to maintain the minimum upside objectives at 1361.00-1364.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight after Tuesday had already filled the gap back up to 16.80 was improved overnight to gap up Wednesday and extend through 17.25, confirming the upside momentum remains intact, next targeting 17.37 and 17.65.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was too shallow to yet invalidate the corrective bounce targeting 146-10, which was attacked to within a quarter-point Tuesday. But extending down through the noon hour did test the 145-04 sell signal whose break would start to signal a new downleg is underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Coverage has rolled forward to Jun, trading at a 10-cent discount from May] Tuesday’s last-minute trigger of downtrending pivotal resistance was extended overnight to gap up Wednesday, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 67.20 close. Extending through 67.60 confirms the rally is now targeting 69.50.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday started by still testing the 2.75 bounce limit, which keeps alive the potential for fresh lows down to 2.52. A post-open bounce up to 2.79 was retraced back down to 2.75, maintaining the distributive pattern.