Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Is the lower-end enough?
Minimum objective met, and holding.
The lower-end of the 2715.00-2722.00 objective was teased at repeatedly overnight. Yesterday afternoon had sort of teased at it, too, but it was probed decisively before the open. Despite triggering no-bias and dipping deeply post-open, the morning recovered just to probe the objective again.
2715.00 is substantial resistance. But it’s not yet a substantial repellent. All of that upside attraction might seem bullish. But it should also be noted that this morning’s recovery could have invalidated the no-bias objective below, by exiting the bias environment above its 2718.25 bias-up target, which instead held. So, perhaps hovering at session highs is only ineffectual optimism ahead of the 2:00 Beige Book release.
Probing any higher isn’t required, but probing any higher is likely to test 2722.00-2724.00. Exiting the bias environment in decline would be likely to fulfill unfinished business below at the 2703.75 low’s oversold RSIs and this morning’s 2702.25 bias-down signal. Either resolution is probably the product of pre-expiration positioning, informing this afternoon’s WedEX.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 19, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar has high-profile and reliably influential items. And any obvious reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2718.25 | 2718.25 |
| …would target | 2723.75 | 2724.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2711.75 | 2712.00 |
| …would target | 2706.50 | 2706.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tough resistance.
Bias-up target’s test reverses down hard, momentarily.
The overnight rally had extended up to this morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target. Not intraday, but overnight. In an ongoing setup likely to trend up post-open. Reacting down was likely, but so was a recovery.
Reacting down, no problem. The open was greeted back at the 2711.50 bias-up signal. Recovering, problem. Bouncing out of the open peaked upon testing 2716.00, and reversed down to fresh lows at 2709.50.
There already was no bullish reason to revisit 2711.50 after testing 2716.00. Fresh lows tested 2704.00. This is a no-bias environment, putting into play a test of its 2702.25 bias-down signal for having held a test of the bias-up signal.
A bounce is now testing the 2711.50 bias-up signal. It’s too late to trigger, and it’s too late for its recovery to invalidate that it didn’t trigger. It should hold, or at least hold its test before resolving down to fulfill the test of 2702.25. Extending higher anyway would only be doomed to failure later.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Couldn’t contain it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open compensated for Monday’s failure to recover 2681.50. Probing it late Monday afternoon had dipped back under it through the cash session close, and barely settled back up at it. But overnight action had firmed and extended enough for the open to absorb a 7-point drop to 2692.50 without even threatening to re-enter Monday’s range. The opening dip was quickly absorbed, and the rally was quickly resumed. It extended into the noon hour up to 2708.50, and resumed coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The next higher objective at 2715.00-2722.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks during Tuesday’s last half-hour. Another pullback similar to the open’s dip still found time to test the morning’s highs down to 2705.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late reaction down from 2713.75 immediately extended a couple of points lower to 2703.75. The blip-down was retraced as quickly, and soon so was much of Tuesdays late reaction down. Flat-to-higher action since then has repeatedly pierced yesterday’s high, until now actually probing fresh highs up to this morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target.
If, then…
Maintaining a gap up Tuesday triggered by proxy the setup that almost triggered Monday afternoon, which points higher through this morning. That’s still likely, especially since the open isn’t indicated to gap down. Yesterday’s late dip also helped by restraining optimism, but too late for sellers to gain traction. That restraint continued overnight by remaining within yesterday’s range. And only now probing fresh highs comes early enough not to be considered last-minute, or doomed. That said, one bearish setup would quickly test 2722.00 and then reverse back under 2715.00. Otherwise, this afternoon’s resolution to a morning rally — extending higher, or reversing back down — could be a function of the Beige Book reaction and WedEX influences, along with the 2715.00-2722.00 objective’s status.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.00 would be likely to trigger the 2711.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2709.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.