Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2711.25 | 2711.50 |
| …would target | 2718.25 | 2718.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2702.25 | 2702.25 |
| …would target | 2695.00 | 2695.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open compensated for Monday’s failure to recover 2681.50. Probing it late Monday afternoon had dipped back under it through the cash session close, and barely settled back up at it. But overnight action had firmed and extended enough for the open to absorb a 7-point drop to 2692.50 without even threatening to re-enter Monday’s range.
The opening dip was quickly absorbed, and the rally was quickly resumed. It extended into the noon hour up to 2708.50, and resumed coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The next higher objective at 2715.00-2722.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks during Tuesday’s last half-hour. Another pullback similar to the open’s dip still found time to test the morning’s highs down to 2705.50.
Maintaining a gap up Tuesday had triggered by proxy the setup that almost triggered Monday afternoon, which pointed higher through Wednesday morning. That’s still likely, so long as Wednesday’s open doesn’t gap down too sharply. Nothing would prevent a morning rally from extending higher through the close or being reversed through the afternoon. Beige Book and WedEX will be relevant influences at the time.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down probed the gap between Friday’s highs and Monday’s lows, there being a gap in between. Back above 1.2435 would resume the rally targeting 1.2510 and 1.2535..
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was recovered Tuesday morning to firm back above 1347.25 and keep alive the recovery attempt, targeting a retest of 1361.00-1364.00, so long as 1344.00 now holds as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness held above 16.55 to maintain upside momentum, before reversing up Tuesday morning to fulfill the retest of 16.80. The recovery has no requirement to extend, but closing higher Wednesday would all but confirm a bigger rally underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 145-04 support at Monday’s gap down had recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, but Tuesday extended the recovery to 146-00, still likely to test at least 146-10 as a corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A slightly lower low at 65.60 Tuesday was recovered to fluctuate narrowly around unchanged, not yet reversing the pullback that still has room down to 65.25 before threatening not to resume the rally soon.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating around the 2.75 bounce limit Tuesday keeps alive the potential for resolving down and resuming the decline, although the delay itself could become bullish Wednesday.
Mid-day Update… Hovering.
Ranging at or under this morning’s highs.
The likely objective to this morning’s rally was 2705.75. It was probed by almost 3 points before the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. Fluctuating around 2705.75 into and out of the noon hour broke lower just before the 1:20 bias timing window. The break held a test of the afternoon’s 2702.00 bias-down signal to trigger “late no-bias.”
So, 2702.00 should define this window’s lower-end. And if tested, the 2708.75 bias-up signal should define this window’s upper-end. Until the bias environment begins lapsing, or comes within view of lapsing in a half-hour. The pattern isn’t required to resolve in either direction, and not resolving down under 2681.50 keeps alive higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 18, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The afternoon’s Fed speaker already makes an appearance before the open, so his later comments shouldn’t be surprising. A reaction to the first appearance might influence price action into the afternoon. The afternoon’s Beige Book tends more often to inhibit price action ahead of it than to trigger a reaction after it.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
3:15 PM ET