Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2708.50 | 2708.75 |
| …would target | 2715.25 | 2715.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2702.00 | 2702.00 |
| …would target | 2695.50 | 2695.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Buyers bidding beneath
Post-open dip recovers to fresh highs.
The open’s active templates were likely either to extend the overnight rally immediately, or else correct it a little first. Extending the overnight rally to 2699.50 didn’t make either template likelier. 
The extra push higher could help to trigger a post-open short-squeeze. Alternatively, or else the added room allowed expending more selling pressure without it damaging the chart.
The open did dip down to 2692.50, and then recovered all but 1 tick up to 2699.25, all during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Consolidating there has broken higher to 2701.50.
1-minute RSI has avoided returning to overbought. That can reflect restrained optimism, especially as price continues rising. Usually then, an eventual price surge takes RSI overbought, and an actual peak or pullback can develop. The next higher objective meanwhile is 2705.75.
Back under 2696.25 would start to signal a deeper reaction down. There’s room down to 2685.00 before threatening not to close positive above 2681.50. Until then, any pullback is assumed will recover, and set-up an interesting WedEX tomorrow afternoon.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Second wind.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday did what all of last week’s attempts did not — closing above 2672.00. Sunday night’s gap up attacking Friday’s highs helped. Closing above 2672.00 was no longer enough to put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00. That now also included closing above 2680.50 and its room for noise up to 2681.50. Monday’s cash session close didn’t reject 2681.50, so much as dipping 5 points back under it. Futures settled at 2681.50, still not fulfilling a breakout.
Overnight action’s new info…
Holding 2681.50 through Monday’s close didn’t prevent resuming the rally overnight. Monday’s 2687.00 high was pierced momentarily into and out of Asia’s opens. Firmly recovering wasn’t prevented by weak economic data from China, extending up to 2696.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. A correction to 2688.00 has now been recovered back up to 2696.00.
If, then…
Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Monday, so only gapping up would be reliable for extending higher. This morning’s 2691.00 bias-up target has already been probed by 5 points. Almost every bullish template is active on this setup. Generally, either immediately extending the gap up or absorbing a post-open reaction down would be credible for trending up intraday. We had discussed a late-afternoon setup that reacted down instead of up, which would have pointed higher through Wednesday morning — maintaining a gap up would put that setup back into play.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2692.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2691.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2688.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2684.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2684.00 | 2684.50 |
| …would target | 2690.75 | 2691.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2671.75 | 2672.00 |
| …would target | 2662.75 | 2663.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Closing above 2672.00 last week would have put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00. Having tested 2672.00 up to 2680.50 without closing above 2672.00, now higher objectives are put into play by closing above 2680.50 — and really, by closing above the room for noise up to 2681.50.
Monday came close. As close as possible without being decisive. The afternoon bias environment had dipped from 2687.00 to almost 2676.00. The last half-hour surged, but was brought back down to 2681.50.
Closing under 2672.00 would have rejected the probe above last week’s high, perhaps also signaled that momentum was reversing down. But having held up, rallying remains possible Tuesday. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Monday, so only gapping up would be reliable for extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.