Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1.2430 close was filled by Monday’s gap up, which extended to 1.2450. The extension was retraced back down to 1.2430, which must hold as support to maintain the rally’s potential for extending to 1.2480 and 1.2535.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s firming extended coming out of the weekend as Monday morning tested 1353.50. Just closing above 1344.00-1347.25 maintains the 1361.00-1364.00 objective.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A retest of 16.80 was all but completed by Monday morning’s extension of Friday’s bounce back above 16.50-16.55 testing 16.77.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 145-04 pullback limit had only firmed intraday, and already probed lower into Monday’s 144-24 open without correcting first to 146-10. Monday’s gap down to 144-24 reacted up to unchanged, keeping alive the corrective bounce potential and its 146-10 target.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high at 67.65 was probed by a dime Sunday night and then reversed down intraday to test 66.15, all still fluctuating around 66.88 without yet putting into play 69.50.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up to 2.75 was probed Monday up to 2.78, then reversed back down to 2.75, which must hold to remain only a temporary corrective bounce.
Mid-day Update… Real, or false?
Noon hour breakout sitting at resistance.
The likely reward for maintaining the gap up was to retest Friday’s high up to 2681.50. Rallying through the noon hour’s entry pierced the 2677.50-2678.75 highs. Its correction then surged through the noon hour’s exit to touch this afternoon’s 2684.50 bias-up target.
2684.50 was tested as support after extending to 2687.00. Exceeding it by 1 point at the 1:20 bias timing window renewed the bias-up signal. Despite barely exceeding 2684.50, the signal is credible. It’s official, if not entirely reliable.
Back under 2683.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Still holding up into the final hour’s entry would be extremely unlikely to close back under 2672.00. And closing above 2681.50 would put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 17, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Four Fed speakers on Tuesday, the week’s busiest. But other appearances are littered throughout the rest of the week, too. Meanwhile, the morning’s econ reports are neither high-profile nor reliable for influencing price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:40 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2677.50 | 2677.75 |
| …would target | 2684.25 | 2684.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2661.25 | 2661.50 |
| …would target | 2654.25 | 2654.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… In the slop.
Relief rally isn’t being rejected. Nor extended.
Last night’s 2672.50-2677.50 open had retraced before Europe’s opens down to 2660.50. It was all recovered before the open up to 2678.75. Actually opening back under the earlier 2677.50 high began another retracement, this time down to 2666.00 before bouncing.
Very gradually, the post-open dip has been recovered to the 2676.25 opening print. The 2672.75 bias-up target wasn’t recovered in time to renew the bias-up signal, but this is still a bias-up environment. A retest of Friday’s 2680.50 opening high is likely, up to 2681.50.
Back under 2671.50 would start to signal the range is resolving down. A downleg prior to probing last week’s highs wouldn’t likely gain much momentum. But reacting down from fresh highs could find a massive rubber band stretch being snapped back.