Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 13, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ calendar is busy, among the week’s busiest. And its two post-open reports are both reliable for influencing price action. Consumer Sentiment has extra potential for being influential following Wednesday’s CPI.
Neel Kashkari Speaks
Thu 5:00 PM ET
Eric Rosengren Speaks
7:30 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.00 | 2671.25 |
| …would target | 2679.25 | 2679.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2659.75 | 2660.00 |
| …would target | 2652.75 | 2653.00 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Up, up, and a weight.
Session-long rally setup triggers, over-extends.
Session-long rally has triggered. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon’s 2655.00 bias environment high was half the battle to actually recovering it, forming the session-long rally setup. 
Extending to 2661.00 magnified the Just holding on to the gap up halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility made it much likelier to be maintained all the way through 9:45. So, the upside was magnified again by surging to 2667.00. The rally extended even after the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed, attacking and piercing 2671.00.
Potential to 2672.00 was fulfilled to within 2-3 ticks. All but fulfilling the near-term objective, and fulfilling it so quickly, became vulnerable to a corrective dip. Being a session-long rally, pullbacks are likely to be either brief or shallow, but in either case likely to be recovered to fresh highs. A 10-point pullback to 2661.25 may have been enough. Back above 2667.00 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Also for being a session-long rally, each timing window should probe above its prior timing window. With one exception — usually the noon hour. When not the noon hour, then usually the final hour, which can reverse direction dramatically. Closing above 2672.00 would put into play 2715.00-2722.00. Meanwhile, probing above 2672.00 intraday would not yet imply the rally is durable.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Late-bloomer?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open was greeted above Tuesday’s 2635.00-2638.50 lows. That might seem uneventful, except for the overnight event of having slid well below Tuesday’s range to 2626.00. The probe under Tuesday’s range was isolated to the overnight night, which likely marginalized sellers for the day (it did) and created potential for trending up (it didn’t). Day-two of Zuckerberg’s testimony provided distraction, and the afternoon’s impending FOMC Minutes provided anxiousness. Distraction and anxiousness combined to keep Wednesday range bound essentially within 2640.00-2662.00 for a second consecutive session. A late dip held a retest of the morning’s 2640.00 low, avoiding a much deeper meltdown.
Overnight action’s new info…
The first reaction to Wednesday’s late dip firmed up to 2651.75, barely attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2655.00 bias environment high. That was gradually retraced entirely, into and out of Europe’s opens, back down to 2640.00. Sitting on the precipice didn’t last long as its reaction quickly recovered, to and through the overnight high to probe yesterday afternoon’s 2655.00 bias environment high up to 2656.50.
If, then…
Retesting Tuesday night’s dip to 2626.00 was likely unless Globex rallied overnight to gap up Thursday. Globex is rallying, just in time to still be considered overnight. But it’s only now encountering its first resistance test, so it’s too soon to be reliable. Resistance being tested is yesterday afternoon’s 2655.00 bias environment high, and having trended down into yesterday’s close, gapping up above 2655.00 could form a “session-long rally” setup. Holding a test of 2655.00 could be as bearish as its recovery would have been bullish. So, forming the session-long rally setup without triggering it would likely target an intraday drop to Tuesday night’s 2626.00 low and lower. Otherwise, rallying could be limited to 2672.00 or else extend to 2715.00-2722.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2655.00 would be likely to trigger the
2650.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2647.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2651.00 | 2650.50 |
| …would target | 2660.25 | 2660.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2635.25 | 2635.00 |
| …would target | 2625.75 | 2625.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.