Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tea break’s over? Tuesday night’s slide under intraday lows had been retraced back within Tuesday’s range before the open. That isolation held Wednesday’s session within Tuesday’s range. This, after Tuesday had also only ranged, choppily around Monday’s highs. Two consecutive sessions contained essentially within 2640.00-2662.00.
Those two consecutive sessions don’t account for the overnight dips. Tuesday night’s got down to 2626.00. Its retest is likely Thursday — if not Wednesday night — unless Wednesday night rallies to produce a gap up Thursday. Buyers gained no traction Wednesday, so rallying Thursday all but requires gapping up, at least above 2555.00.
Retracing to Tuesday night’s 2626.00 low is really resuming the decline. Obligatory support at the gap back down to Friday’s 2604.00 close would likely be only temporary, as would any bounce from testing Friday’s 2684.50 low. Otherwise, rallying overnight and Wednesday morning could be limited to 2672.00 or else 2715.00-2722.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up above the 1.2390 buy signal was corrected intraday to essentially fill the gap back down to Monday’s close. Wednesday’s gap up dipped back into negative territory, and closing positive would help to confirm 1.2510-1.2535 is in-play so long as 1.2405 now holds as support.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying through 1344.00 overnight extended higher to gap up Wednesday to 1354.00, and trended higher to attack 1369.50. Pullbacks should now hold 1361.00 (which was being tested into the afternoon) to maintain the rally’s momentum next targeting 1383.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s rally began at the open instead of already having gotten underway overnight. Its 16.80 target was probed during the morning to attack 16.89, but ultimately dipped into the afternoon Higher highs would target 17.20 and potentially 17.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight began firming ahead of Wednesday’s open, gapping up and extending higher to fill the gap outstanding from last Monday’s 146-26 close. The minimum objective is fulfilled, and last Friday’s unimpressive start to this leg now requires pullbacks to hold 146-02 as support.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
War talk drove price sharply higher overnight to gap up Wednesday and fulfill the 66.88 target during the morning. Probing higher intraday to 67.45 now requires pullbacks to hold 66.60 as support to maintain potential for extending to 69.50. Back under 66.05 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating within the 2.65-2.70 range Wednesday is not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. The attraction to retest 2.62 persists, if not also the likelihood for probing it down to 2.52, but that’s not a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Choppy range.
Flat-to-higher choppiness.
the offsetting tests of this morning’s bias-down signals had put into play at least an offsetting test of 2663.00. It has been attacked to within 2 points, which is too wide to fulfill the objective, so its test remains outstanding.
The noon hour contained the high, probing 5-6 points into positive territory. Reacting down into the bias timing window to 2646.00 recovered the afternoon’s 2650.00 bias timing window in time to avoid triggering it. It’s being probed again now down to 2646.00, and now it’s also too late to invalidate the no-bias signal.
So, probing lower is possible, but it would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Its probe would have potential to 2645.25 and 2642.50. Trending is already unlikely while Zuckerberg is testifying to Congress. More so when FOMC Minutes is due at the top of the hour.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 12, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Thursday’s econ reports have a recent reliable track record for influencing price action. But any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report will likely be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2659.25 | 2658.75 |
| …would target | 2667.00 | 2666.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2650.25 | 2650.00 |
| …would target | 2643.00 | 2642.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.