Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2644.50 | 2644.00 |
| …would target | 2653.75 | 2653.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2629.25 | 2629.00 |
| …would target | 2618.75 | 2618.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Second wind.
Overnight rally finally extends… to resistance.
Gapping up at the 2620.00 bias-up signal reacted down to attack 2613.00 through much of the opening 15 minutes of volatility. 
That was still above Friday’s highs, and it only stretched the rubber band, which snapped back up. Overnight highs were probed by a point up to 2629.00.
Reacting down into the 10:15 bias timing window attacked the 2620.00 bias-up signal as support. But bias-up triggered cleanly. Trending back up through the bottom of the hour probed the 2630.50 bias-up target up to 2635.25.
That’s testing Friday afternoon’s 2634.25 high. Gapping up above it would have been credible for triggering a session-long rally setup. Now it’s just resistance. In fact, RSIs just diverged negatively into its retest. Back under 2630.75 would now be likely to test 2627.50.
None of which prevents extending higher anyway. A fresh high could trigger another short-squeeze through the top of the hout. But back under 2627.50 would start to signal that this morning’s rally was unwinding, at least likely to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2604.00 close.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Morning stretch.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s session was preceded by an overnight drop, and the open was greeted in recovery mode. That was nothing new for the week, not until the recovery failed, miserably. Thursday night had initially plunged 40 points on China tariffs news from its 2662.25 intraday close. That was retraced only to 2648.00 pre-open, and then almost to 2657.00 through the open. The balance of the morning reversed back down to within 5 points of the 2620.00 overnight lows. The flat-to-lower noon hour resolved down sharply to 2584.50 — down 78 points from Thursday’s close. The final hour bounced to 2611.00. No “unfinished business above” was left outstanding, having rejected the Wednesday-Thursday test of 2644.00 and 2660.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap up immediately recovered Friday’s last-minute reaction down from 2611.00. The gap up extended higher to test 2625.00 by midnight. Narrow ranging into Europe’s opens blipped down to attack 2615.00, then blipped-up to attack and test 2628.00. But its reaction down is now attacking 2618.00.
If, then…
The relentless overnight rally is relative shallow, and still contained by the range of Friday afternoon’s collapse. It has gotten into position for more easily recovering a relevant level — like Friday afternoon’s 2634.00 bias environment high — which would be bullish if recovered through the open. Meanwhile, however, the likely alternative to extending higher is not only to retesting Friday’s low but trending through it.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2612.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2620.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2621.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/7/18) …Volatility, distractions, and Bitcoin.
Last week’s volatility wasn’t isolated to intraday action, as it included at least two sizable overnight plunges. The same could be said for the drop coming out of January’s highs. One difference is that last week’s volatility all developed within an established range, while the previous occasion trended down. At first, the difference is surprising, especially having experienced it first hand. But then it is glaring — and it is glaringly different from the tariff war headlines and mainstream media concerns.
Volatile trending and volatile ranging. Does the difference between them mean different resolutions? Not necessarily. Those characteristics really speak more to timing and paths, and less to ultimate direction. Similar to trending having paused, traders’ curiosity at this week’s Facebook vs. Congress hearings could put volatility on pause, too. In this weekend’s Saturday Review, we discuss the market’s possible paths and their likely resolutions, detailing the elements that suggest either.
Bitcoin: We didn’t get to this chart, which I think is timely. My $6,600 support has been thoroughly tested. One potential consolidation it supported had broken yesterday to probe a slightly lower low. Now that break is being retraced back up to the consolidation’s $6.900 upper-end. More important, the retracement was done by surging, symmetrical to the break lower. So long as fresh lows are avoided, this pattern suggests that a bottom is forming, at least for a sizable correction back up to $8,400.
Following are three videos I produced showing specific setups that had guided us in anticipating a specific resolution this week. (Originally published in the Roadmap blog):
– Reaction limit examples –
– Noon hour reaction limit head-fake –
– Overnight pattern (Triangle false break) into intraday –
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WB, BIDU, MU, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BA, CAT, FB, ARNA
transcript
—————– (04/07/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
—————– (04/07/2018 09:33) —————–
Bill G: good
—————– (04/07/2018 10:00) —————–
ljr: stocks: WB, BIDU, Nvda, TSLA. I’ll watch recording. thx
—————– (04/07/2018 10:02) —————–
David B: MU,AMZN
—————– (04/07/2018 10:18) —————–
David B: BA,CAT
—————– (04/07/2018 10:39) —————–
ljr: question about timing Windows:
ljr: breaks higher or lower
David B: Thanks
ljr: during them are valid?
ljr: one more sentance
ljr: but what about tries outside of those windows
ljr: sorry typing on a phone
ljr: ie a break at 11:15-12
ljr: ah. mIntaine d at end of window.
ljr: got it
ljr: thx
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!