Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2621.50 | 2620.00 |
| …would target | 2632.00 | 2630.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2594.00 | 2592.50 |
| …would target | 2581.25 | 2580.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s 50-point plunge exceeded the overnight 40-plunge. That had been triggered by the evening announcement of $100m more in tariffs against China. The afternoon plunge was triggered by the impending weekend illiquidity. The pattern’s resolution down continues to be likeliest.
There is no “unfinished business above,” and resuming the decline could target another 30 points lower and attack prior lows. And there’s no bullish reason to attack prior lows. With sellers having gained traction Friday afternoon, gapping up more than 30 points Monday may be the only way to avoid extending the decline.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- I’LL SEND THE LINK TO SATURDAY REVIEW EARLY IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low overnight was retraced into Friday’s Employment Situation report, where Friday morning extended back up above Thursday’s highs. Consolidating pessimistically short of the gap back to Wednesday’s 1.2350 gap is potentially bullish from a contarian perspective.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight under 1323.00 was reversed up Friday morning to test 1339.00 resistance. Holding its test instead of being recovered to reverse momentum up does soften the bullishness of having held the earlier test of support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially extending Thursday’s bounce up to 16.50 Friday morning, the pattern reacted back down under 16.50 to maintain the recent break’s momentum. But the pattern can’t tolerate much if any further delay in confirming fresh lows.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
This week’s pullback to the 145-00 area had essentially dipped as deeply as possible without reversing momentum down. From that perspective, bouncing up to 146-00 seems a little shallow for the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. The gap back up to Monday’s 146-26 close is still in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday still failed to extend above the gap back to Tuesday’s 63.45 close, remaining vulnerable to reversing back down. Friday did reverse back down, retesting Wednesday’s 62.10 low. Closing under 62.62 won’t tolerate much if any further delay in resuming the rally through 64.25 to reinstate the 66.88 target.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce back up to 2.70 is much too shallow to reverse momentum up, and keeps alive the ongoing pullback targeting a retest of 2.62 down to 2.52.
Mid-day Update… No accumulation.
Noon hour opportunity to recover falls flat.
The noon hour probed a fresh low attacking 2622.00 that didn’t take RSIs oversold. It was recovered 2639.50 as the noon hour lapsed — a fresh relative high that was well-timed and well-postured to produce a corrective bounce. But it didn’t.
The reversal attempt was itself reversed into the bias timing window. Not deeply enough soon enough to trigger the 2626.25 bias-down signal, but that hasn’t mattered. The no-bias environment has extended down anyway to 2602.00.
Is this no-bias trending? Not if the 2618.50 bias-down target is recovered as the bias environment starts lapsing. Then the bias signal would require being retraced, too. Otherwise, not yet recovering would suggest the bias-down signal’s trigger was delayed by Fed Chair Powell’s impending comments, no retracement required.
As for the balance of the session, it remains vulnerable to extending down. And there’s not much support below, actually a very wide air pocket that would set an interesting tone for next week.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Apr 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports are scheduled as the week begins, still absorbing the Employment Situation report’s reaction from Friday.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET