Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2829.00 | 2833.00 |
| …would target | 2834.00 | 2838.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2821.00 | 2825.25 |
| …would target | 2813.25 | 2517.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… More than it could chew.
Gap up has put everyone on defensive.
Friday’s 2836.00 open gapped up above the past three mornings’ highs, blipping-up above Tuesday morning’s 2835.00 high up to 2837.50. And then reacting down to 2828.00. But only briefly as the 2829.75 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target is essentially the 2836.00 open up to 2838.00.
Which is likely to be tested since the post-open dip was absorbed. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. That’s not equivalent to trending, and could be influential simply by retracing pullbacks.
Renewed targets don’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding. And we’ve already established the current pattern of strong-handed distribution into strength. I’m giving fresh highs a benefit of the doubt, but back under 2829.00 would start to signal at least a corrective dip to 2825.25. Back under the 2823.00 bias-up signal before noon would suggest the strong-handed distribution pattern is rearing its head.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Will Brexit save the day?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wide swings greeted Thursday’s open, and persisted intraday. Wednesday night’s initial 15-point drop had recovered 20 points to greet the open back at Wednesday’s 2815.50 last-minute high. Extending even further into positive territory tested 2824.00, too late to be strong-handed while also fulfilling the bias-up target — not exactly a formula for stability. A collapse to 2802.50 bottomed during the noon hour, and was largely retraced to close back at 2819.50 resistance.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sideways ranging has suddenly come alive. Eking higher into the Globex open had found resistance at this morning’s 2823.00 bias-up signal. A brief consolidation soon spiked up to within 3 ticks of this morning’s 2829.75 bias-up target, and then repeated the reversals at least twice through the night. The most recent dip testing 2823.00 had come within 2 points of the 2820.25 earlier Globex low when suddenly Brexit headlines rescued the potential failure. Combined with optimistic trade talk, a 30-minute surge is probing Wednesday and Thursday morning highs up to 2834.25.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
This week’s wide, choppy ranging is now bumping into the hard deadline of weekend illiquidity. Overnight action had formed much of a bearish Globex-flip pattern by retracing its probe above yesterday’s high. That organic pattern is suddenly replaced by an upleg thanks to the Brexit headlines artificial catalyst. Headline reactions are often retraced, at least by 61.8%, but that will be moot if not yet done through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Retracing it in time could extend down through the morning, but holding the surge up could more likely attract post-open reinforcements. Friday Factors of impending illiquidity could produce a close above 2827.00 to insert a detour from realizing the effects of last week’s massive distribution. The same Friday Factors could produce severe downside consequences if this overnight surge becomes a rubber band that snaps back down through the open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2825.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2823.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.00 would be likely to exceed the 2829.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2818.50 | 2823.00 |
| …would target | 2824.25 | 2829.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2810.50 | 2815.00 |
| …would target | 2802.50 | 2807.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s initial 15-point drop and 20-point recovery had offered a glimpse of the intraday session. Thursday’s 5 and 10-point opening surges collapsed more than 20 points, and largely recovered. As inside days go, it was volatile.
Wide swings represent a broad-based willingness to express widely divergent opinion. Being range bound reflects an anxious reluctance to reinforce those opinions. But it tends to be only a temporary condition, with its eventual resolution being an order of magnitude compared to the range.
Throw a hard deadline into all of that volatility — such as two days of impending illiquidity — and strong-handed sponsorship becomes obvious. Whether that is a rush to the exits, or to cover and buy, trending at all on Friday should trend a lot. And trending early should extend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.