Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout had resumed already, and the decline persisted overnight to extend deeper intraday Thursday to 1.1287. The minimum objective to fill the gap back down to 1.1280 is approaching, and should at least be probed.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness opened at or under the 1308.50 prior low (basis Jun) which uptrending momentum had needed to hold. Collapsing under it creates a breakout day that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. Flat or higher into the weekend would maintain potential for being a false break. Optimally, Thursday’s intraday break would be recovered entirely overnight to at least hover Friday — which is not an unusual rejection — but would be difficult considering Thursday’s sizable drop. Closing under 1291.00 would signal the decline is extending.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s close under uptrending support was confirmed by a lower close Thursday. A sharply lower close, that expended a lot of selling pressure to retest 15.00 prior lows. Meanwhile, Thursday’s break was the first under 15.28 prior lows, so at least an intraday probe of fresh lows is likely, and probably down to 14.75-14.80, but not necessarily a negative close. Structurally, recovering to close positive from any negative dip would be bullish.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still probing fresh highs overnight up to 150-21, although Thursday’s intraday highs held 150-09. The shallowness at this stage of the rally is sufficient confirmation that optimism remains alive and well. Pullbacks should hold 149-10 to avoid a deeper interim pullback.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing uptrending support at 58.75 Thursday and the recent 58.25 prior lows held, avoiding the 58.00 sell signal. Ultimately recovering to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close neutralized its attraction above, so delayed strength Friday would remain vulnerable to reversing down more deeply.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having bounced intraday Wednesday to touch the 2.75 (basis May) higher prior lows, Thursday’s dip was able to neutralize the attraction at Wednesday’s 2.72 gap down. It held, allowing the setup to resolve differently than the prior outstanding gap below. Closing back above 2.77 would signal the trend reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Patience, or anxiousness?
Trending attempts scurry back to unchanged.
The open’s surge above overnight highs came too late to be credible.
It quickly peaked at 2820.25 and reversed down sharply 5 points where natural support at unchanged held. More weak-handed buying probed higher to 2824.25, fulfilling this morning’s bias-up target, and the buying pressure that created it.
A more consequential reversal collapsed down to 2802.50. That was well under the morning’s 2816.75 bias-up signal, during a bias-up environment. And that’s a reflection of sellers become less patient — like mid-morning yesterday’s collapse.
Now the noon hour and bias environment have bounced back up to this morning’s 2816.75 bias-up signal, retracing its premature break. The attraction above is neutralized, and the weekend is fast-approaching. Impatient sellers would be entirely credible for triggering a new break lower, especially so long as the afternoon bounce doesn’t recover 2818.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 29, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. The PMI result is released privately to institutional subscribers several minutes before being released publicly, usually to the same effect. Consumer Sentiment need not react similarly.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
9:25 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2810.00 | 2814.50 |
| …would target | 2816.50 | 2821.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2797.50 | 2802.00 |
| …would target | 2792.25 | 2796.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A little late to rise.
Post-open probe’s sponsorship is suspect.
Recovering from its initial 2795.00 low, the overnight Globex session eventually recovered to probe positive territory up to 2814.50. 
Its pre-open reaction held the 2806.00 bias-down signal as support, which held and recovered to greet the open at yesterday’s 2815.50 last prior high.
Kind of late to suddenly attract sponsorship for probing a prior high, especially after hovering just under it for several hours prior.
The surge’s 10-point reaction down from 2820.50 was recovered entirely, but not immediately. Extending higher held resistance at the 2823.25 bias-up target but still held up easily to trigger the 2816.75 bias-up signal. This is a bias-up environment, bias-up target met. Nothing prevents it from extending higher — a fresh high just touched 2824.25 — but a reliable durable recover would have been probing above the bias-up target earlier by 10:15.
Back under 2819.25 would start to reverse momentum down. Probing under the 2816.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment would require its retracement. Failing to hold 2816.75 as support after meeting its target would be bearish. Extending higher anyway would next target 2827.25 and potentially 2833.75.