Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Choppiness is alive and well.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wide overnight swings up to 2832.00 and down to 2814.50 had preceded Wednesday’s opening surge back up to 2831.00. Which led to another wide, choppy round-trip, as last week’s strong-handed distribution resumed. This stage is less patient, as seen in Wednesday’s late-morning collapse to attack 2791.50. The low stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s ~2790.00 lows before a bounce tested and retested 2813.00 resistance into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another multi-directional night. Dipping into Wednesday’s 2810.00 cash session close barely hesitated extending lower through the Globex open to touch 2795.00. All of which was retraced into Europe’s opens. A reaction there has recovered to probe positive territory. But at this point, 4-5 points into positive territory and attacking 2814.50 has yet to touch yesterday’s late 2816.25 high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering from a dip is the basis for accumulation. But, accumulation by whom? By weak-hands, if they can’t recover the retracement back above a relevant resistance and through a relevant timing window. Last night’s dip didn’t probe yesterday’s low, but it was deep enough that its recovery would put buyers on offense for the morning. The line in the sand for qualifying as a recovery is only being attacked, and it’s meanwhile resistance, so sellers will have the chance for a fresh start through the open. And with the weekend approaching, either resuming the decline or invalidating it by attempting to close back above 2827.00 should start becoming obvious.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2806.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2803.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2816.25 bias-up signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2812.00 | 2816.75 |
| …would target | 2818.50 | 2823.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2801.25 | 2806.00 |
| …would target | 2794.75 | 2799.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
March Top Madness… follow-up
In my methodology, the bearish trend reversal can be invalidated by two consecutive closes above 2827 (basis June ES futures). My last update’s “caveat” remains valid, that it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing straight up. Avoiding this precipice would suggest resuming the rally to much higher highs.
Meanwhile, you’re welcome to a front row seat in my live chaRTroom to learn more about my methodology’s inputs, formulae and observations… CLICK HERE NOW.
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Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Aside from Tuesday’s correction day, last week’s distribution seems to be dominating again. Tuesday night’s 9-point rally to 2832.00 was retraced to 2814.50. And Wednesday’s opening surge to 2831.00 was retraced to 2817.50. Those round-trips are sort of a gentle reminder of last week’s distribution, albeit shallower, but distributive nonetheless.
In contrast, a stark reminder of Friday’s collapse followed Wednesday’s late-morning bounce to 2828.50. The consequences of distribution were another collapse to attack 2791.50.
The low stopped optimistically short of touching Monday’s ~2790.00 lows. RSIs diverging positively warned early of a bounce that tested and retested 2813.00 resistance. Resistance held through the close, keeping alive the late-morning collapse’s bearish momentum. The decline is still easily invalidated by closing back above 2827.00, but should meanwhile become obvious into the weekend.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction day had resolved back down to Friday’s lows Tuesday. Fresh lows developed overnight into Wednesday’s open, suggesting the decline has resumed, targeting prior lows.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight was retraced into Wednesday’s open and extended down to 1308.00 support. The rally can’t tolerate much if any further deterioration any lower.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s retest of 15.27 represents a maximum pullback limit before trading any lower would invalidate the upside potential without yet triggering a new signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already probing higher overnight to 150-00 after Tuesday’s shallow pullback held 149-00, suggests the rally intends to extend much higher, so long as 149-00 continues to hold as support.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only filling the gap back up to 60.00 Tuesday ahead of Wednesday’s EIA allowed its negative knee-jerk reaction to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 58.90 close. Which held, along with the same uptrending support that had defined Friday and Monday’s lows, and for which there was no bullish reason to revisit at this stage.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight weakness tested the 2.73 gap down that had yet to be filled from above. Rather than react up, Wednesday’s open gapped down, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness that would likely cause an initially favorable reaction up to fail.