Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Game on! And off. And on!
Morning plunge further suggests that selling is widening.
NOTE: I changed the bias-up target from 2819.50 to 2811.50 based on the noon hour’s exit.
This morning’s choppy opening only got choppier, heading back down to a retest of its 2817.50 bias-down signal. 
A re-retest, since it had been tested already both pre-open and post-open. Probing under it would be no-bias trending that requires a retracement UNLESS the bias environment lapses under its 2710.75 bias-down target.
Which it did. On the way to sharply lower lows at 2791.75. Much earlier it had become likely the correction day was surely done, and last week’s distribution had resumed.
A corrective bounce was triggered above 2794.00 that became a bias-up. Touching its 2811.50 bias-up target is now reversing down. But this is still a bias-up environment, so testing its 2804.00 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end. Or be retraced unless the window lapses under its 2789.75 bias-down signal — under the signal, not its target, since the bias-up target is met.
Regardless, yesterday’s corrective session seems to be done. A retest of Monday’s low under 2790.00 is likely, and then 2770.00. That was a lot of distribution last week, and its next downleg should be more difficult to mask.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 28, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s econ reports are high-profile, but not reliable for influencing price action. Nevertheless, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to a post-open report. The afternoon’s Fed speakers should keep volatility alive.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
11:30 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
1:15 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.75 | 2804.00 |
| …would target | 2806.75 | 2811.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2785.00 | 2789.75 |
| …would target | 2778.50 | 2783.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stuck in a wide rut.
Volatility is high, but sponsorship is limited.
Yesterday’s equilibrium around its 2823.00 open and close persisted to today’s open. 
Which was impressive, having probed 3-1/2 points under the 2817.50 bias-up signal. Which was also impressive, having rallied earlier to attack 2832.00. The open was contained within the overnight range, which was contained within yesterday’s range.
Volatility is high, but sponsorship is limited.
The open surged immediately to 2830.50 and began reversing down as quickly. The first half-hour ended back down at the 2817.50 bias-up signal. Volatility is high, but sponsorship is limited.
Most recently holding a test of the bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2828.25 bias-up signal. Which was quickly tested. And just as quickly reversed down. The overnight low is being probed by 3 points to touch the 2810.75 bias-down target. Volatility is high…
But is sponsorship still limited?
This is still a no-bias environment, so tests of either bias signal should define that end of the window. No-bias trending under the bias-down signal requires its retracement UNLESS the bias environment is exited under its 2810.75 bias-down target.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Heating back up already. And back down, too.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s rally and Tuesday’s opening surge to 2835.00 created room for the balance of the session to expend selling pressure without yet resuming the decline. The session high was a 61.8% retracement back to Thursday’s 2863.00 high from Monday afternoon’s 2789.50 low, which is natural resistance. Trending back down through the afternoon bias environment fell to 2808.50. Which is a lot of selling pressure to have expended until so late in the day, without yet probing back into negative territory. That’s usually too late to suddenly turn negative. And as expected, the last 60-90 minutes bounced back up. The close was unchanged from the 2823.00 open, a setup that reflects equilibrium.
Overnight action’s new info…
Today’s volatility should be healthy if anything like the two significant overnight moves that developed already. After an initial dip from Tuesday’s close touched 2818.00, yesterday’s late bounce resumed. It extended back up through into Europe’s opens to attack 2832.00. A 7-point reaction down tried to recover, but that collapsed down to 2817.00. Positively diverging RSIs at the 2817.50 bias-down signal slowed the drop, but only briefly as the decline is resuming to touch 2814.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Had it been maintained, the earlier overnight rally would have been on-track for extending to 2846.00 and possibly 2852.00. But its complete reversal back down into negative territory suggests that yesterday’s correction day has ended. Resuming the decline would structurally target fresh lows under 2790.00, and calculably target 2770.00 in an aggressive manner if last week’s distribution is advancing to the next stage.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2819.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2817.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2813.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.