Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2823.50 | 2828.25 |
| …would target | 2831.50 | 2836.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2812.50 | 2817.50 |
| …would target | 2805.75 | 2810.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Apparently, rallying overnight and then surging at Tuesday’s open had a purpose — to create room for expending selling pressure without yet resuming the decline. The session had potential for being corrective, since Monday had confirmed Friday’s break under prior lows.
The 2823.00 open had extended sharply to the morning’s 2835.00 peak. Trending back down through the afternoon bias environment fell to 2808.50. Which is a lot of selling pressure to have expended until so late in the day, without yet probing back into negative territory. That became our focus in the chaRTroom, and the last 60-90 minutes bounced back up to the 2823.00 open.
Closing unchanged from the open reflects an equilibrium session. Not to be confused with inert, as the session ranged considerably either way. But the 45-point rally from Monday afternoon’s 2789.50 low was also a 61.8% retracement back to Thursday’s 2863.00 high, which is natural resistance.
Extending any higher would have potential to 2846.00 and possibly 2852.00. Meanwhile, already ending the correction and resuming the decline would simply target fresh lows, and probably in an aggressive manner.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still having access to the morning for extending the corrective bounce, Tuesday ranged narrowly back down to Friday’s lows, attacking 1.1350. The timing is unchanged, and extending the decline Wednesday remains likely.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already trending down overnight gapped open to attack the maximum pullback limit, filling the gap back down to Friday’s 1312.00 close or only testing the structure that contains it. Any early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness attacked Friday’s structure containing the gap back to its close. While holding the 15.40 maximum pullback limit keeps alive a path higher, it does require the rally to resume by Wednesday morning.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The adjusted 149-00 pullback limit being tested at Monday’s close was probed overnight down to 148-12, well above its potential to 147-17/147-25 that would at least maintain the uptrend.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce from retesting Friday’s low had extended higher overnight, but it was a post-open surge that filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 60.00 close. Still overlapping the gap and not rejecting does help to maintain upside momentum, but Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from an optimal position of strength.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday to 2.72 under all prior intraday lows should be retested from above to form a durable bottom. It was only attacked intraday Monday, and Tuesday was already firming optimistically. Absent closing above 2.77, a retest of 2.72 Wednesday would help to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Early to rise, early to bed.
Morning’s fresh highs largely retraced.
The overnight rally had extended to attack 2824.00 where the open surged to the 2830.75 renewed bias-up target. 
A dip to 2825.25 support recovered momentarily to 2835.00, then reacted down into the bias environment lapsing.
And down to 2821.00 into the noon hour. And down to 2815.00 before the noon hour lapsed. Now down to 2813.00 as the afternoon bias environment begins.
That’s a lot of selling pressure to be expended, and the market is still 7 points positive. Nothing prevents that from turning negative, or deeply negative — today’s bounce was going to be only a temporary detour before it even began. But it is difficult to expend that much selling pressure by this late in the day and still to remain in positive territory.
This afternoon’s no-bias signal was invalidated by breaking under the 2819.50 bias-down signal at 1:30. Support at 2811.25 is being attacked, and its break would start to suggest much bigger selling pressure is becoming visible. Exiting the bias environment back above 2819.50 would allow a bounce into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 27, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar is busy, and high-profile, but with very little track record for influencing price action. Still, any noticeable reaction to a pre-open report would likely be repeated in reaction to a post-open report.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
[Cancelled]8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
[Cancelled]8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
[Cancelled]8:30 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET